research: add btc eth short overlay search

reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-horizons.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,441 @@
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reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-monthly.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,6777 @@
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+bb_upper_rejection-btc-15m-trend96-bb20-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,2019-12,10000.0,9862.437207163557,-0.013756279283644313,maker_taker,bb_upper_rejection,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m
+bb_upper_rejection-btc-15m-trend96-bb20-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,2020-01,9862.437207163557,9572.135141170533,-0.029435124391176237,maker_taker,bb_upper_rejection,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m
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+bb_upper_rejection-btc-15m-trend96-bb20-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,2020-12,4344.812365781206,3556.9069814227973,-0.18134393801761828,maker_taker,bb_upper_rejection,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m
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reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-qualified.csv

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+name,cost_model,roundtrip_cost_on_margin,family,symbol,signal_symbol,bar,first_candle,last_candle,years,gross_total_return,gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market,worst_month,worst_month_return,trades,trades_per_month,win_rate,payoff_ratio,profit_factor,net_total_return,net_annualized_return,net_max_drawdown,net_calmar,risk_reward_ratio,trend,fast,atr,pullback,stop,take,hold,lookback,break_lookback,break_buffer,exit_fast,drop,vwap,deviation,exit_deviation,rsi,entry_rsi,exit_rsi,bb,std,btc_trend,btc_lookback,eth_lookback,btc_drop,eth_max_rebound

reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-report.md

@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+# BTC/ETH Short Overlay Search
+
+Run command: `scripts/search_btc_eth_short_overlay_variants.py --years 10 --output-dir reports/ultrashort --prefix short-overlay`
+
+Output files:
+- `reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-totals.csv`
+- `reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-horizons.csv`
+- `reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-monthly.csv`
+- `reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-qualified.csv`
+- `reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-summary.json`
+- `reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-report.md`
+
+Scope: cached BTC/ETH perpetual candles only. All candidates are short-only overlays; no live OKX calls and no order submission.
+Costs: maker_taker=0.0021 and taker_taker=0.0030 roundtrip on margin at 3x.
+Candidate families: trend bounce failure, crash continuation, VWAP deviation fade, RSI overbought under downtrend, BB upper rejection, and ETH short by BTC downside.
+
+Qualified maker_taker candidates with >=8 trades/month and positive 1y/6m/3m: 0.
+
+## Top qualified or fallback candidates
+
+| name | family | symbol | signal_symbol | bar | trades | trades_per_month | net_total_return | net_annualized_return | net_max_drawdown | net_calmar | win_rate | payoff_ratio | profit_factor | risk_reward_ratio | worst_month_return |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-btc-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.007-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 288 | 3.78334 | -0.434865 | -0.0859788 | 0.469404 | -0.183166 | 0.472222 | 0.880445 | 0.787766 | -0.732141 | -0.15826 |
+| rsi_overbought_downtrend-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi70.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | rsi_overbought_downtrend | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 717 | 9.41894 | -0.713567 | -0.178771 | 0.782444 | -0.228478 | 0.391911 | 1.23797 | 0.797866 | -1.0234 | -0.164167 |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-eth-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.007-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 477 | 6.26616 | -0.834413 | -0.246693 | 0.840065 | -0.293659 | 0.389937 | 1.01789 | 0.65061 | -1.67942 | -0.13131 |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-btc-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.004-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 917 | 12.0463 | -0.852926 | -0.260632 | 0.852926 | -0.305574 | 0.466739 | 0.851725 | 0.745477 | -1.39724 | -0.324436 |
+| trend_bounce_fail-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.009-take0.01-hold12 | trend_bounce_fail | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 1663 | 21.8462 | -0.895623 | -0.299514 | 0.931274 | -0.321617 | 0.321106 | 1.8616 | 0.880511 | -0.861656 | -0.272836 |
+| trend_bounce_fail-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | trend_bounce_fail | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 1672 | 21.9644 | -0.913361 | -0.319769 | 0.917784 | -0.348414 | 0.299641 | 2.01072 | 0.860265 | -1.08656 | -0.2994 |
+| bb_upper_rejection-btc-15m-trend96-bb48-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | bb_upper_rejection | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 1142 | 15.002 | -0.914418 | -0.321083 | 0.916004 | -0.350526 | 0.389667 | 1.07611 | 0.68704 | -1.95905 | -0.151299 |
+| bb_upper_rejection-eth-15m-trend96-bb48-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | bb_upper_rejection | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 1169 | 15.3567 | -0.953211 | -0.382687 | 0.963342 | -0.397249 | 0.361848 | 1.20531 | 0.683438 | -2.08489 | -0.192716 |
+| rsi_overbought_downtrend-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi70.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | rsi_overbought_downtrend | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 873 | 11.4683 | -0.954679 | -0.385779 | 0.963905 | -0.400225 | 0.340206 | 1.27941 | 0.659697 | -2.06817 | -0.178328 |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-eth-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.004-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 1276 | 16.7623 | -0.968134 | -0.418932 | 0.970141 | -0.431826 | 0.437304 | 0.905933 | 0.704054 | -2.15839 | -0.20689 |
+
+## Horizon metrics for top candidate
+
+| horizon | horizon_start | horizon_end | net_total_return | net_annualized_return | net_max_drawdown | net_calmar | trades_per_month | profit_factor | risk_reward_ratio |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| 1y | 2025-04-29 | 2026-04-29 | -0.0347627 | -0.0347627 | 0.0831145 | -0.418251 | 1.50103 | 0.772524 | -0.488521 |
+| 3m | 2026-01-29 | 2026-04-29 | -0.00102447 | -0.00414831 | 0.039796 | -0.104239 | 3.04375 | 1.0022 | 0.00571895 |
+| 3y | 2023-04-29 | 2026-04-29 | -0.0367587 | -0.0123949 | 0.12886 | -0.0961893 | 1.77737 | 0.944668 | -0.108468 |
+| 6m | 2025-10-29 | 2026-04-29 | -0.0312533 | -0.0616936 | 0.0831145 | -0.742273 | 2.34135 | 0.731905 | -0.719003 |
+| full | 2019-12-25 | 2026-04-29 | -0.434865 | -0.0859788 | 0.469404 | -0.183166 | 3.78334 | 0.787766 | -0.732141 |
+
+## Monthly summary
+
+| name | family | symbol | signal_symbol | bar | positive_months | negative_months | avg_month_return | worst_month_return |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-btc-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.007-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 25 | 39 | -0.00682411 | -0.15826 |
+| rsi_overbought_downtrend-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi70.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | rsi_overbought_downtrend | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 30 | 47 | -0.0147138 | -0.164167 |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-btc-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.004-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 23 | 52 | -0.022384 | -0.324436 |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-eth-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.007-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 22 | 52 | -0.0224868 | -0.13131 |
+| trend_bounce_fail-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.009-take0.01-hold12 | trend_bounce_fail | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 28 | 49 | -0.0236999 | -0.272836 |
+| trend_bounce_fail-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | trend_bounce_fail | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 29 | 48 | -0.0268181 | -0.2994 |
+| bb_upper_rejection-btc-15m-trend96-bb48-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | bb_upper_rejection | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 24 | 53 | -0.0300729 | -0.151299 |
+| bb_upper_rejection-eth-15m-trend96-bb48-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | bb_upper_rejection | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 22 | 55 | -0.036759 | -0.192716 |
+| rsi_overbought_downtrend-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi70.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | rsi_overbought_downtrend | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 19 | 58 | -0.0375348 | -0.178328 |
+| vwap_deviation_fade-eth-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.004-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | vwap_deviation_fade | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 18 | 59 | -0.0418579 | -0.20689 |
+| crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | crash_continuation | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 24 | 53 | -0.0480158 | -0.541707 |
+| crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | crash_continuation | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 21 | 56 | -0.0555715 | -0.585114 |
+| crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | crash_continuation | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 25 | 50 | -0.0558742 | -0.595083 |
+| trend_bounce_fail-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.009-take0.01-hold12 | trend_bounce_fail | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 24 | 53 | -0.0614349 | -0.331188 |
+| crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | crash_continuation | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 22 | 53 | -0.0635806 | -0.460965 |
+| rsi_overbought_downtrend-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi60.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | rsi_overbought_downtrend | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 16 | 61 | -0.0637091 | -0.236867 |
+| trend_bounce_fail-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12 | trend_bounce_fail | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 20 | 57 | -0.0750625 | -0.315322 |
+| crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | crash_continuation | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 22 | 55 | -0.0776491 | -0.5153 |
+| crash_continuation-eth-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | crash_continuation | ETH-USDT-SWAP | ETH-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 19 | 57 | -0.0797634 | -0.703144 |
+| crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | crash_continuation | BTC-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m | 23 | 54 | -0.0842049 | -0.661969 |
+
+## Worst months
+
+| name | month | start_equity | end_equity | return | cost_model | family | symbol | signal_symbol | bar |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 127.237 | 6.26907 | -0.950729 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 23.8218 | 1.22517 | -0.948569 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 153.158 | 8.3599 | -0.945417 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 238.158 | 13.045 | -0.945226 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 164.267 | 9.46226 | -0.942397 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 202.204 | 12.3394 | -0.938975 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-05 | 0.512411 | 0.0321762 | -0.937206 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-05 | 0.0294095 | 0.00195589 | -0.933494 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 37.1444 | 2.47276 | -0.933428 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 288.39 | 19.2082 | -0.933395 | maker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-05 | 0.403197 | 0.0277439 | -0.93119 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 69.1322 | 4.81489 | -0.930352 | maker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 419.37 | 29.3394 | -0.930039 | maker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 282.703 | 20.1023 | -0.928893 | maker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 274.577 | 20.4849 | -0.925395 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 334.74 | 25.118 | -0.924963 | maker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 318.523 | 24.3733 | -0.92348 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 278.036 | 21.5259 | -0.922579 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-05 | 0.166819 | 0.0131539 | -0.921149 | taker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |
+| eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8 | 2021-01 | 424.427 | 34.0144 | -0.919858 | maker_taker | eth_by_btc_down | ETH-USDT-SWAP | BTC-USDT-SWAP | 15m |

reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "output_files": [
+    "reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-totals.csv",
+    "reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-horizons.csv",
+    "reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-monthly.csv",
+    "reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-qualified.csv",
+    "reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-summary.json",
+    "reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-report.md"
+  ],
+  "qualified_count": 0,
+  "strategy_count": 44,
+  "top_name": "vwap_deviation_fade-btc-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.007-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12",
+  "years_requested": 10.0
+}

reports/ultrashort/short-overlay-totals.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+name,cost_model,roundtrip_cost_on_margin,family,symbol,signal_symbol,bar,first_candle,last_candle,years,gross_total_return,gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market,worst_month,worst_month_return,trades,trades_per_month,win_rate,payoff_ratio,profit_factor,net_total_return,net_annualized_return,net_max_drawdown,net_calmar,risk_reward_ratio,trend,fast,atr,pullback,stop,take,hold,lookback,break_lookback,break_buffer,exit_fast,drop,vwap,deviation,exit_deviation,rsi,entry_rsi,exit_rsi,bb,std,btc_trend,btc_lookback,eth_lookback,btc_drop,eth_max_rebound
+vwap_deviation_fade-btc-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.007-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,maker_taker,0.0021,vwap_deviation_fade,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,0.037545920423446115,0.20824442939372206,2021-02,-0.15825957581813432,288,3.7833405265429434,0.4722222222222222,0.8804446963282355,0.7877663072410528,-0.4348645099503404,-0.08597878451628338,0.46940423616299193,-0.1831657618156408,-0.7321413320286616,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,48.0,0.007,0.001,,,,,,,,,,
+rsi_overbought_downtrend-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi70.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,maker_taker,0.0021,rsi_overbought_downtrend,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,0.3008231368776702,0.31230960401711566,2020-03,-0.164166952153185,717,9.41894151920587,0.39191073919107394,1.237969253674586,0.7978655052352264,-0.7135672354023233,-0.1787713645123874,0.7824440021330005,-0.22847815821329498,-1.0234009297903226,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,14.0,70.0,45.0,,,,,,,
+vwap_deviation_fade-eth-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.007-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,maker_taker,0.0021,vwap_deviation_fade,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.5478153927737511,0.5819252500684547,2022-05,-0.1313096950983993,477,6.26615774708675,0.389937106918239,1.0178900005720803,0.6506101034584432,-0.8344132228384236,-0.24669282601536635,0.8400654975122349,-0.2936590381891901,-1.679419714571974,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,48.0,0.007,0.001,,,,,,,,,,
+vwap_deviation_fade-btc-15m-trend96-vwap48-atr48-deviation0.004-exit_deviation0.001-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,maker_taker,0.0021,vwap_deviation_fade,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,0.019697068970861802,0.3130847624570154,2021-02,-0.3244361757682822,917,12.046261329305135,0.46673936750272627,0.851724755223994,0.7454768818729436,-0.8529261698477202,-0.26063178306684354,0.8529261698477201,-0.30557367364326066,-1.3972414156736064,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,48.0,0.004,0.001,,,,,,,,,,
+trend_bounce_fail-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.009-take0.01-hold12,maker_taker,0.0021,trend_bounce_fail,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,2.465130900157767,0.5435881475198903,2022-01,-0.2728358912606661,1663,21.8461642209754,0.3211064341551413,1.8616047131914324,0.8805109980905447,-0.8956229218354084,-0.2995137730772224,0.9312743523136684,-0.3216171178054104,-0.861656477569063,96,16.0,48,0.003,0.009,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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+bb_upper_rejection-btc-15m-trend96-bb48-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,maker_taker,0.0021,bb_upper_rejection,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.0536750787366489,0.3450713238858739,2025-04,-0.1512987428378746,1142,15.001996115666811,0.38966725043782835,1.0761054678800794,0.687040076336636,-0.914418494369666,-0.32108339392223484,0.916004400509379,-0.3505260386780721,-1.9590520833265044,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,,,,48.0,1.5,,,,,
+bb_upper_rejection-eth-15m-trend96-bb48-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,maker_taker,0.0021,bb_upper_rejection,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.45287333333877094,0.6253821952085705,2025-02,-0.19271594786562618,1169,15.356684290030213,0.3618477331052181,1.2053060016238926,0.6834375853711884,-0.9532114549935395,-0.382687081396616,0.9633419777466184,-0.3972494609772644,-2.0848855943161047,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,,,,48.0,1.5,,,,,
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+crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.8436645495197652,0.8859606978310125,2021-01,-0.5780657082246567,1204,15.816465256797583,0.3272425249169435,1.368908079632354,0.6658639300927747,-0.995891254570032,-0.579191468431355,0.9959812089370965,-0.5815285100102077,-2.8153982784209814,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,8,3.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.016,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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+crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.8016240277240355,0.9008761887251857,2021-05,-0.6381734431748441,1823,23.948020069054813,0.42896324739440483,1.010995318896781,0.7594604604969094,-0.99918855498881,-0.6740795609647516,0.9992129162622317,-0.6746105359469226,-2.58004179612003,96,,48,,0.01,0.01,8,6.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.016,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.8435733457321054,0.8761880307142567,2021-05,-0.5194930401304456,1876,24.64425981873112,0.34754797441364604,1.3290985566403977,0.7079838716744602,-0.9994543882760161,-0.693833917453156,0.9994646305596363,-0.6942055739027537,-3.1352676117300105,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,8,6.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.016,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+trend_bounce_fail-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.009-take0.01-hold12,taker_taker,0.003,trend_bounce_fail,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.045147700909281774,0.7334735092027775,2022-07,-0.3631676552969154,2625,34.48357250755287,0.3260952380952381,1.5581069651266748,0.7539511374496516,-0.9996420071887233,-0.7134981884843605,0.9996760098727333,-0.7137294297731467,-2.4773376979533897,96,16.0,48,0.003,0.009,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+rsi_overbought_downtrend-btc-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi60.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,taker_taker,0.003,rsi_overbought_downtrend,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,0.9150774108382091,0.45755150487829255,2021-05,-0.28172192810833563,2861,37.58380988347,0.3743446347430968,1.1268389978701974,0.6742148417424476,-0.9996551142639757,-0.715176701623573,0.9996596200897351,-0.7154202162925964,-3.5735219646656913,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,14.0,60.0,45.0,,,,,,,
+trend_bounce_fail-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-pullback0.003-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,taker_taker,0.003,trend_bounce_fail,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.6670716177551438,0.857952029136844,2020-03,-0.3606358441533164,2646,34.7594410876133,0.29176114890400606,1.7057809931345898,0.7027016684631288,-0.9998831461049285,-0.759823363985132,0.9998918761794995,-0.7599055278740251,-3.1605881283135595,96,16.0,48,0.003,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.7567151847170991,0.9014451051501755,2021-05,-0.5756810976537824,2689,35.32431484678464,0.33581256972852364,1.4097213529337413,0.7127538531350327,-0.9999266060914856,-0.7767908019420933,0.9999348259852472,-0.7768414318170311,-3.6165235984913853,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,8,3.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.01,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+crash_continuation-eth-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9641546859292269,0.9755232190207255,2021-05,-0.7409478806027627,2144,28.164868364264137,0.4207089552238806,1.0013936839196556,0.7272601472588802,-0.9999435775502807,-0.7858486871201862,0.9999467259018229,-0.7858905547307554,-2.9846047234886908,96,,48,,0.01,0.01,8,3.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.016,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback3-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.8995188213454136,0.9519391389110099,2021-05,-0.7031136998011669,2642,34.70689469141131,0.38152914458743376,1.1736541471491149,0.7240167566256474,-0.999965203647442,-0.8015495656343372,0.9999710849710781,-0.8015727431333879,-3.5661869704906155,96,,48,,0.01,0.01,8,3.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.01,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+rsi_overbought_downtrend-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-rsi14-entry_rsi60.0-exit_rsi45.0-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,taker_taker,0.003,rsi_overbought_downtrend,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.6780292627986609,0.853621878891455,2020-09,-0.4466344833443924,3204,42.08966335779025,0.3636079900124844,1.1784922627605738,0.6733415822050361,-0.9999788675814157,-0.8165434529145567,0.9999817058383311,-0.8165583911657767,-3.7147475559260363,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,14.0,60.0,45.0,,,,,,,
+bb_upper_rejection-btc-15m-trend96-bb20-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,taker_taker,0.003,bb_upper_rejection,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.10469210015246481,0.5228198380100346,2025-10,-0.29014813122890704,3721,48.88128506689685,0.42246707874227357,0.7776461428160341,0.5688505055871593,-0.9999881710634207,-0.8325694212404167,0.9999881890617055,-0.8325792547826202,-5.223499790067234,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,,,,20.0,1.5,,,,,
+crash_continuation-eth-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.016-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9212110113917561,0.9597080378992959,2021-01,-0.7492605160265633,3022,39.69880233059992,0.44738583719391134,0.957127806102471,0.7748723316470304,-0.999991120856936,-0.8399666954519596,0.9999927578605029,-0.8399727786519964,-2.910107246112516,96,,48,,0.01,0.01,8,6.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.016,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.8305998986262731,0.9466209425769243,2021-05,-0.7091105692117259,3428,45.03226154510143,0.40198366394399065,1.1280448915949943,0.7582662734721474,-0.9999945253616332,-0.8517050568074291,0.9999953290070662,-0.8517090351343138,-3.459099400454064,96,,48,,0.01,0.01,8,6.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.01,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+crash_continuation-btc-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,BTC-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.7827429886845982,0.9281699913659794,2021-05,-0.5881472981675215,3527,46.33278485110056,0.3456195066628863,1.3836963328748464,0.7308170839577287,-0.9999947769754534,-0.8528001230771629,0.9999948650518434,-0.8528045021840693,-3.8921968322780334,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,8,6.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.01,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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+bb_upper_rejection-eth-15m-trend96-bb20-atr48-std1.5-stop0.006-take0.01-hold12,taker_taker,0.003,bb_upper_rejection,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.8493984291430439,0.8880819235433557,2025-01,-0.37652103575126405,3913,51.403512084592144,0.4260158446204958,0.7979530860552027,0.5922474596856735,-0.9999988280328056,-0.8836761955070654,0.9999988400905298,-0.8836772204926422,-5.386273428476825,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,12,,,,,,,,,,,,20.0,1.5,,,,,
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9996121246829822,0.9997871786133096,2021-01,-0.8922069380372417,2171,28.519556538627537,0.2989405803777061,1.2735206530002992,0.5430452718772629,-0.9999994441396537,-0.896572417460234,0.9999995084867107,-0.8965728581377086,-3.8808402153742123,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,3.0,3.0,0.015,-0.002
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+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9968264919472686,0.9985703665819877,2021-01,-0.9225785771778823,3199,42.02398036253776,0.44607689903094716,0.9026181858141402,0.7268827038130802,-0.9999997919599356,-0.9114070688100749,0.999999833960871,-0.911407220139336,-3.1041674021272065,96,16.0,48,,0.01,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,6.0,3.0,0.015,-0.002
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+crash_continuation-eth-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9566903755722002,0.9793069952161536,2021-01,-0.7575436328395181,4988,65.5253560638757,0.4202085004009623,1.0608239621449596,0.7688406032696525,-0.9999999871762801,-0.9428830163043422,0.9999999876109383,-0.9428830279857782,-3.834319906502671,96,,48,,0.01,0.01,8,6.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.01,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9997079157899638,0.9998066087237294,2021-01,-0.9234801968558431,3574,46.95020500647389,0.3268047006155568,1.297818183086602,0.6300297746654826,-0.9999999938307492,-0.9491015309700138,0.999999995024977,-0.9491015356918158,-4.345848985204348,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,6.0,3.0,0.015,-0.002
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+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9994678715107408,0.9996768158892522,2021-01,-0.9452255729340062,4133,54.29356387570134,0.41204935881925964,0.9966217287092642,0.6984554748937766,-0.9999999979041393,-0.9570618803464173,0.999999998010878,-0.9570618822501301,-3.7967671980596216,96,16.0,48,,0.01,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,3.0,3.0,0.01,-0.002
+crash_continuation-eth-15m-trend96-lookback6-break_lookback12-break_buffer0.002-exit_fast8-atr48-drop0.01-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,crash_continuation,ETH-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.998565607195414,0.9988519915114216,2021-05,-0.8043790659104777,5149,67.64034851100561,0.3340454457176151,1.359888503440347,0.6821254668758814,-0.9999999997281943,-0.9688759285248068,0.999999999737407,-0.9688759287792268,-5.250159705958154,96,,48,,0.006,0.01,8,6.0,12.0,0.002,8.0,0.01,,,,,,,,,,,,,
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9978798012601535,0.9994971331806792,2021-01,-0.9389751011514182,5398,70.9113616745792,0.4388662467580585,0.9588364392073483,0.7499120252499861,-0.9999999998140936,-0.9706836849012971,0.999999999818567,-0.9706836850774111,-3.854959925756113,96,16.0,48,,0.01,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,6.0,3.0,0.01,-0.002
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9999611193374082,0.9999709611289164,2021-01,-0.9454165457776716,4484,58.90451014242555,0.32091882247992864,1.2937191377540163,0.6113831984328505,-0.9999999999470045,-0.9759427431942357,0.9999999999505902,-0.9759427432424568,-4.920149050085305,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,3.0,3.0,0.01,-0.002
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9998867323980593,0.9999380309396196,2021-01,-0.9423971960062699,5163,67.82426089771256,0.3401123377881077,1.2874262042884657,0.6637464517705653,-0.9999999999800457,-0.979373724891336,0.9999999999823229,-0.9793737249086485,-4.73538621266765,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,12.0,3.0,0.015,-0.002
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.01-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9964176617933719,0.9995443123526786,2021-01,-0.9334282803591987,6645,87.29270069054813,0.45387509405568094,0.927342327539282,0.770910821350186,-0.9999999999927828,-0.982427048758129,0.9999999999929455,-0.9824270487650595,-3.9597630219074373,96,16.0,48,,0.01,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,12.0,3.0,0.01,-0.002
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback6-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.9999639548505527,0.9999859982420388,2021-01,-0.9507293405470859,6054,79.5289706517048,0.3356458539808391,1.3048481655078676,0.6592370642247607,-0.9999999999995642,-0.9887073703795061,0.9999999999995771,-0.9887073703799242,-5.428438628090665,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,6.0,3.0,0.01,-0.002
+eth_by_btc_down-eth-15m-trend96-fast16-atr48-btc_trend96-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.01-eth_max_rebound-0.002-stop0.006-take0.01-hold8,taker_taker,0.003,eth_by_btc_down,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-25 00:15,2026-04-29 16:45,6.349828767123288,-0.999943926587082,0.9999861005247738,2021-01,-0.9485691368418463,7618,100.07461156668106,0.3477290627461276,1.2922681969783267,0.6890536340168252,-0.9999999999999939,-0.9942347988437531,0.999999999999994,-0.9942347988437591,-5.57405860623037,96,16.0,48,,0.006,0.01,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,96.0,12.0,3.0,0.01,-0.002

scripts/search_btc_eth_short_overlay_variants.py

@@ -0,0 +1,728 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import sys
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]))
+
+from okx_codex_trader.models import Candle
+from okx_codex_trader.sampled_report import SegmentResult, mark_to_market, trade_equity
+from scripts import explore_ultrashort as explore
+
+
+OUTPUT_DIR = Path("reports/ultrashort")
+PREFIX = "short-overlay"
+YEARS = 10.0
+INITIAL_EQUITY = explore.INITIAL_EQUITY
+LEVERAGE = explore.LEVERAGE
+PRIMARY_COST = "maker_taker"
+COSTS = {
+    "maker_taker": 0.0021,
+    "taker_taker": 0.0030,
+}
+HORIZONS = (
+    ("full", None),
+    ("3y", pd.DateOffset(years=3)),
+    ("1y", pd.DateOffset(years=1)),
+    ("6m", pd.DateOffset(months=6)),
+    ("3m", pd.DateOffset(months=3)),
+)
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class Strategy:
+    family: str
+    symbol: str
+    signal_symbol: str
+    bar: str
+    name: str
+    warmup_bars: int
+    params: dict[str, float | int | str]
+
+
+def load_candles(symbol: str, bar: str, years: float) -> list[Candle]:
+    candles, _ = explore.load_cached_candles(explore.CANDLE_CACHE_DIR, symbol, bar)
+    if not candles:
+        raise FileNotFoundError(f"missing cached candles for {symbol} {bar}")
+    requested = explore.history_bars_for_years(bar, years)
+    return candles[-requested:] if len(candles) > requested else candles
+
+
+def frame_from_candles(candles: list[Candle], prefix: str = "") -> pd.DataFrame:
+    return pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            f"{prefix}ts": [candle.ts for candle in candles],
+            f"{prefix}open": [candle.open for candle in candles],
+            f"{prefix}high": [candle.high for candle in candles],
+            f"{prefix}low": [candle.low for candle in candles],
+            f"{prefix}close": [candle.close for candle in candles],
+            f"{prefix}volume": [candle.volume for candle in candles],
+        }
+    )
+
+
+def aligned_frame(symbol_candles: list[Candle], signal_candles: list[Candle] | None = None) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    base = frame_from_candles(symbol_candles)
+    if signal_candles is None:
+        return base
+    signal = frame_from_candles(signal_candles, "sig_").rename(columns={"sig_ts": "ts"})
+    return base.merge(signal, on="ts", how="inner")
+
+
+def rsi(series: pd.Series, length: int) -> pd.Series:
+    diff = series.diff()
+    gain = diff.clip(lower=0.0).rolling(length).mean()
+    loss = (-diff.clip(upper=0.0)).rolling(length).mean()
+    rs = gain / loss
+    return 100.0 - 100.0 / (1.0 + rs)
+
+
+def true_range(frame: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
+    prev_close = frame["close"].shift(1)
+    return pd.concat(
+        [
+            frame["high"] - frame["low"],
+            (frame["high"] - prev_close).abs(),
+            (frame["low"] - prev_close).abs(),
+        ],
+        axis=1,
+    ).max(axis=1)
+
+
+def close_trade(
+    *,
+    trades: list[dict[str, object]],
+    exits: list[dict[str, object]],
+    position: dict[str, object],
+    candle: Candle,
+    exit_price: float,
+) -> tuple[float, bool]:
+    exit_equity = trade_equity(
+        side="short",
+        margin_used=float(position["margin_used"]),
+        entry_price=float(position["entry_price"]),
+        exit_price=exit_price,
+        leverage=LEVERAGE,
+    )
+    pnl = exit_equity - float(position["margin_used"])
+    trades.append(
+        {
+            "side": "Short",
+            "entry_time": explore._format_ts(int(position["entry_time"])),
+            "exit_time": explore._format_ts(candle.ts),
+            "entry_price": round(float(position["entry_price"]), 4),
+            "exit_price": round(exit_price, 4),
+            "pnl": round(pnl, 4),
+            "return_pct": round(pnl / float(position["margin_used"]) * 100.0, 4),
+        }
+    )
+    exits.append({"ts": candle.ts, "price": exit_price, "side": "short"})
+    return exit_equity, pnl > 0.0
+
+
+def run_short_segment(candles: list[Candle], entry_signal: pd.Series, exit_signal: pd.Series, max_hold_bars: int, stop_loss_pct: float, take_profit_pct: float) -> SegmentResult:
+    equity = INITIAL_EQUITY
+    ending_equity = equity
+    peak_equity = equity
+    max_drawdown = 0.0
+    wins = 0
+    trades: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    entries: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    exits: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    equity_curve: list[dict[str, float | int]] = []
+    position: dict[str, object] | None = None
+    pending_entry = False
+    pending_exit = False
+    warmup_bars = max(int(entry_signal.first_valid_index() or 0), 1)
+
+    for index in range(warmup_bars, len(candles)):
+        candle = candles[index]
+        if pending_exit and position is not None:
+            equity, won = close_trade(trades=trades, exits=exits, position=position, candle=candle, exit_price=candle.open)
+            wins += 1 if won else 0
+            position = None
+            pending_exit = False
+        if pending_entry and position is None and equity > 0.0:
+            position = {
+                "entry_time": candle.ts,
+                "entry_price": candle.open,
+                "entry_index": index,
+                "margin_used": equity,
+                "stop_price": candle.open * (1.0 + stop_loss_pct),
+                "take_profit_price": candle.open * (1.0 - take_profit_pct),
+            }
+            entries.append({"ts": candle.ts, "price": candle.open, "side": "short"})
+            pending_entry = False
+
+        current_equity = equity
+        if position is not None:
+            stop_hit = candle.high >= float(position["stop_price"])
+            take_hit = candle.low <= float(position["take_profit_price"])
+            if stop_hit or take_hit:
+                exit_price = float(position["stop_price"] if stop_hit else position["take_profit_price"])
+                equity, won = close_trade(trades=trades, exits=exits, position=position, candle=candle, exit_price=exit_price)
+                wins += 1 if won else 0
+                current_equity = equity
+                position = None
+
+        if position is not None:
+            current_equity = mark_to_market(
+                side="short",
+                margin_used=float(position["margin_used"]),
+                entry_price=float(position["entry_price"]),
+                mark_price=candle.close,
+                leverage=LEVERAGE,
+            )
+
+        current_equity = max(0.0, current_equity)
+        peak_equity = max(peak_equity, current_equity)
+        max_drawdown = max(max_drawdown, (peak_equity - current_equity) / peak_equity)
+        equity_curve.append({"ts": candle.ts, "equity": current_equity, "close": candle.close})
+        ending_equity = current_equity
+        if index == len(candles) - 1 or equity <= 0.0:
+            continue
+
+        if position is not None:
+            held = index - int(position["entry_index"])
+            if bool(exit_signal.iloc[index]) or held >= max_hold_bars:
+                pending_exit = True
+            continue
+
+        if bool(entry_signal.iloc[index]):
+            pending_entry = True
+
+    trade_count = len(trades)
+    return SegmentResult(
+        trade_count=trade_count,
+        total_return=(ending_equity - INITIAL_EQUITY) / INITIAL_EQUITY,
+        win_rate=wins / trade_count if trade_count else 0.0,
+        max_drawdown=max_drawdown,
+        trades=trades,
+        open_position=position,
+        candles=candles[warmup_bars:],
+        equity_curve=equity_curve,
+        entries=entries,
+        exits=exits,
+    )
+
+
+def strategy_signals(strategy: Strategy, frame: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[pd.Series, pd.Series]:
+    close = frame["close"]
+    open_ = frame["open"]
+    high = frame["high"]
+    low = frame["low"]
+    p = strategy.params
+    trend = close.rolling(int(p["trend"])).mean()
+    fast = close.rolling(int(p.get("fast", max(2, int(p["trend"]) // 4)))).mean()
+    atr = true_range(frame).rolling(int(p.get("atr", 48))).mean()
+    below_trend = close < trend
+
+    if strategy.family == "trend_bounce_fail":
+        pullback = high >= fast * (1.0 + float(p["pullback"])) if float(p["pullback"]) >= 0.0 else high >= fast * (1.0 + float(p["pullback"]))
+        reject = close < open_
+        entry = below_trend & pullback & reject & (close < fast)
+        exit_ = (close > fast) | (close > trend)
+    elif strategy.family == "crash_continuation":
+        ret = close / close.shift(int(p["lookback"])) - 1.0
+        prior_low = low.shift(1).rolling(int(p["break_lookback"])).min()
+        entry = below_trend & (ret <= -float(p["drop"])) & (close <= prior_low * (1.0 + float(p["break_buffer"])))
+        exit_ = (close > close.rolling(int(p["exit_fast"])).mean()) | (ret > 0.0)
+    elif strategy.family == "vwap_deviation_fade":
+        typical = (high + low + close) / 3.0
+        vwap = (typical * frame["volume"]).rolling(int(p["vwap"])).sum() / frame["volume"].rolling(int(p["vwap"])).sum()
+        entry = below_trend & (high >= vwap * (1.0 + float(p["deviation"]))) & (close < vwap)
+        exit_ = (close <= vwap * (1.0 - float(p["exit_deviation"]))) | (close > trend)
+    elif strategy.family == "rsi_overbought_downtrend":
+        value = rsi(close, int(p["rsi"]))
+        entry = below_trend & (value >= float(p["entry_rsi"])) & (close < open_)
+        exit_ = (value <= float(p["exit_rsi"])) | (close > trend)
+    elif strategy.family == "bb_upper_rejection":
+        mid = close.rolling(int(p["bb"])).mean()
+        std = close.rolling(int(p["bb"])).std(ddof=0)
+        upper = mid + std * float(p["std"])
+        entry = below_trend & (high >= upper) & (close < upper) & (close < open_)
+        exit_ = (close <= mid) | (close > trend)
+    elif strategy.family == "eth_by_btc_down":
+        sig_close = frame["sig_close"]
+        sig_trend = sig_close.rolling(int(p["btc_trend"])).mean()
+        sig_ret = sig_close / sig_close.shift(int(p["btc_lookback"])) - 1.0
+        eth_ret = close / close.shift(int(p["eth_lookback"])) - 1.0
+        entry = (sig_close < sig_trend) & (sig_ret <= -float(p["btc_drop"])) & (eth_ret <= float(p["eth_max_rebound"]))
+        exit_ = (sig_ret >= 0.0) | (close > fast)
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"unknown family {strategy.family}")
+
+    enough_range = atr.notna() & (atr > 0.0)
+    return (entry & enough_range).fillna(False), exit_.fillna(False)
+
+
+def make_strategy(family: str, symbol: str, signal_symbol: str, bar: str, params: dict[str, float | int | str]) -> Strategy:
+    parts = [family, symbol.split("-")[0].lower(), bar]
+    parts.extend(f"{key}{value}" for key, value in params.items())
+    warmup = max(int(value) for key, value in params.items() if key.endswith(("trend", "lookback", "fast", "atr", "vwap", "rsi", "bb")) and isinstance(value, int))
+    return Strategy(family, symbol, signal_symbol, bar, "-".join(parts), warmup, params)
+
+
+def build_strategies() -> list[Strategy]:
+    strategies: list[Strategy] = []
+    for symbol in ("BTC-USDT-SWAP", "ETH-USDT-SWAP"):
+        for bar in ("15m",):
+            strategies.extend(
+                make_strategy(
+                    "trend_bounce_fail",
+                    symbol,
+                    symbol,
+                    bar,
+                    {"trend": trend, "fast": fast, "atr": 48, "pullback": pullback, "stop": stop, "take": take, "hold": hold},
+                )
+                for trend in (96,)
+                for fast in (16,)
+                for pullback in (0.003,)
+                for stop in (0.006, 0.009)
+                for take in (0.010,)
+                for hold in (12,)
+            )
+            strategies.extend(
+                make_strategy(
+                    "crash_continuation",
+                    symbol,
+                    symbol,
+                    bar,
+                    {
+                        "trend": trend,
+                        "lookback": lookback,
+                        "break_lookback": break_lookback,
+                        "break_buffer": 0.002,
+                        "exit_fast": 8,
+                        "atr": 48,
+                        "drop": drop,
+                        "stop": stop,
+                        "take": take,
+                        "hold": hold,
+                    },
+                )
+                for trend in (96, 192) if bar == "5m" or trend == 96
+                for lookback in (3, 6)
+                for break_lookback in (12,)
+                for drop in (0.010, 0.016)
+                for stop in (0.006, 0.010)
+                for take in (0.010,)
+                for hold in (8,)
+            )
+            strategies.extend(
+                make_strategy(
+                    "vwap_deviation_fade",
+                    symbol,
+                    symbol,
+                    bar,
+                    {"trend": trend, "vwap": vwap, "atr": 48, "deviation": dev, "exit_deviation": 0.001, "stop": stop, "take": take, "hold": hold},
+                )
+                for trend in (96,)
+                for vwap in (48,)
+                for dev in (0.004, 0.007)
+                for stop in (0.006,)
+                for take in (0.010,)
+                for hold in (12,)
+            )
+            strategies.extend(
+                make_strategy(
+                    "rsi_overbought_downtrend",
+                    symbol,
+                    symbol,
+                    bar,
+                    {"trend": trend, "fast": 16, "atr": 48, "rsi": rsi_length, "entry_rsi": entry_rsi, "exit_rsi": exit_rsi, "stop": stop, "take": take, "hold": hold},
+                )
+                for trend in (96,)
+                for rsi_length in (14,)
+                for entry_rsi in (60.0, 70.0)
+                for exit_rsi in (45.0,)
+                for stop in (0.006,)
+                for take in (0.010,)
+                for hold in (12,)
+            )
+            strategies.extend(
+                make_strategy(
+                    "bb_upper_rejection",
+                    symbol,
+                    symbol,
+                    bar,
+                    {"trend": trend, "bb": bb, "atr": 48, "std": std, "stop": stop, "take": take, "hold": hold},
+                )
+                for trend in (96,)
+                for bb in (20, 48)
+                for std in (1.5,)
+                for stop in (0.006,)
+                for take in (0.010,)
+                for hold in (12,)
+            )
+    for bar in ("15m",):
+        strategies.extend(
+            make_strategy(
+                "eth_by_btc_down",
+                "ETH-USDT-SWAP",
+                "BTC-USDT-SWAP",
+                bar,
+                {
+                    "trend": 96,
+                    "fast": 16,
+                    "atr": 48,
+                    "btc_trend": btc_trend,
+                    "btc_lookback": btc_lookback,
+                    "eth_lookback": eth_lookback,
+                    "btc_drop": btc_drop,
+                    "eth_max_rebound": eth_max_rebound,
+                    "stop": stop,
+                    "take": take,
+                    "hold": hold,
+                },
+            )
+            for btc_trend in (96,)
+            for btc_lookback in (3, 6, 12)
+            for eth_lookback in (3,)
+            for btc_drop in (0.010, 0.015)
+            for eth_max_rebound in (-0.002,)
+            for stop in (0.006, 0.010)
+            for take in (0.010,)
+            for hold in (8,)
+        )
+    return strategies
+
+
+def run_strategy(strategy: Strategy, data: dict[tuple[str, str], list[Candle]]) -> SegmentResult:
+    symbol_candles = data[(strategy.symbol, strategy.bar)]
+    signal_candles = None if strategy.signal_symbol == strategy.symbol else data[(strategy.signal_symbol, strategy.bar)]
+    frame = aligned_frame(symbol_candles, signal_candles)
+    candles = [
+        Candle(strategy.symbol, int(row.ts), float(row.open), float(row.high), float(row.low), float(row.close), float(row.volume))
+        for row in frame.itertuples(index=False)
+    ]
+    entry, exit_ = strategy_signals(strategy, frame)
+    return run_short_segment(candles, entry, exit_, int(strategy.params["hold"]), float(strategy.params["stop"]), float(strategy.params["take"]))
+
+
+def daily_equity(frame: pd.DataFrame, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timestamp) -> pd.Series:
+    series = frame.set_index("ts")["equity"].sort_index()
+    series = pd.concat([pd.Series([INITIAL_EQUITY], index=[start.normalize()]), series]).sort_index()
+    series = series.groupby(level=0).last()
+    index = pd.date_range(start.normalize(), end.normalize(), freq="1D", tz="UTC")
+    return series.reindex(index.union(series.index)).sort_index().ffill().reindex(index).ffill()
+
+
+def cost_adjusted_equity_frame(result: SegmentResult, cost: float) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    frame = pd.DataFrame(result.equity_curve)
+    if frame.empty:
+        return pd.DataFrame({"ts": pd.Series(dtype="datetime64[ns, UTC]"), "equity": pd.Series(dtype=float)})
+    frame["ts"] = pd.to_datetime(frame["ts"], unit="ms", utc=True)
+    adjustments: dict[pd.Timestamp, float] = {}
+    for trade in result.trades:
+        exit_time = pd.to_datetime(str(trade["exit_time"]), utc=True)
+        gross_factor = 1.0 + float(trade["return_pct"]) / 100.0
+        net_factor = gross_factor - cost
+        if gross_factor <= 0.0 or net_factor <= 0.0:
+            factor = 0.0
+        else:
+            factor = net_factor / gross_factor
+        adjustments[exit_time] = adjustments.get(exit_time, 1.0) * factor
+    if adjustments:
+        factor_frame = pd.DataFrame({"ts": list(adjustments.keys()), "factor": list(adjustments.values())}).sort_values("ts")
+        frame = frame.merge(factor_frame, on="ts", how="left")
+        frame["factor"] = frame["factor"].fillna(1.0).cumprod()
+        frame["equity"] = frame["equity"] * frame["factor"]
+    return frame[["ts", "equity"]]
+
+
+def metrics_from_daily_equity(series: pd.Series) -> dict[str, float]:
+    series = series.clip(lower=0.0)
+    years = (series.index[-1] - series.index[0]).total_seconds() / 86_400 / 365
+    if float(series.iloc[0]) <= 0.0:
+        total_return = -1.0
+    else:
+        total_return = float(series.iloc[-1] / series.iloc[0] - 1.0)
+    annualized_return = (1.0 + total_return) ** (1.0 / years) - 1.0 if total_return > -1.0 and years > 0.0 else 0.0
+    max_drawdown = explore.max_drawdown_from_equity([float(value) for value in series])
+    returns = series.where(series > 0.0).pct_change(fill_method=None).dropna()
+    daily_std = float(returns.std(ddof=1)) if len(returns) > 1 else 0.0
+    risk_reward = float(returns.mean()) / daily_std * (365**0.5) if daily_std else 0.0
+    return {
+        "net_total_return": total_return,
+        "net_annualized_return": annualized_return,
+        "net_max_drawdown": max_drawdown,
+        "net_calmar": annualized_return / max_drawdown if max_drawdown else 0.0,
+        "risk_reward_ratio": risk_reward,
+    }
+
+
+def monthly_rows(name: str, series: pd.Series) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    monthly = series.resample("ME").last()
+    frame = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "name": name,
+            "month": monthly.index.strftime("%Y-%m"),
+            "start_equity": monthly.shift(1).fillna(series.iloc[0]).to_numpy(),
+            "end_equity": monthly.to_numpy(),
+        }
+    )
+    frame["return"] = frame["end_equity"] / frame["start_equity"] - 1.0
+    return frame
+
+
+def trade_stats_for_window(result: SegmentResult, cost: float, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timestamp) -> dict[str, float | int]:
+    returns: list[float] = []
+    for trade in result.trades:
+        exit_time = pd.to_datetime(str(trade["exit_time"]), utc=True)
+        if start <= exit_time <= end:
+            returns.append(float(trade["return_pct"]) / 100.0 - cost)
+    wins = [value for value in returns if value > 0.0]
+    losses = [value for value in returns if value < 0.0]
+    avg_win = sum(wins) / len(wins) if wins else 0.0
+    avg_loss_abs = abs(sum(losses) / len(losses)) if losses else 0.0
+    gross_profit = sum(wins)
+    gross_loss_abs = abs(sum(losses))
+    months = max((end - start).days / 30.4375, 1.0)
+    return {
+        "trades": len(returns),
+        "trades_per_month": len(returns) / months,
+        "win_rate": len(wins) / len(returns) if returns else 0.0,
+        "payoff_ratio": avg_win / avg_loss_abs if avg_loss_abs else 0.0,
+        "profit_factor": gross_profit / gross_loss_abs if gross_loss_abs else 0.0,
+    }
+
+
+def horizon_rows(name: str, result: SegmentResult, cost: float, series: pd.Series) -> list[dict[str, object]]:
+    rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    end_time = series.index[-1]
+    for label, offset in HORIZONS:
+        horizon = series if offset is None else series[series.index >= end_time - offset]
+        if len(horizon) < 2:
+            horizon = series
+        rows.append(
+            {
+                "name": name,
+                "horizon": label,
+                "horizon_start": horizon.index[0].strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
+                "horizon_end": horizon.index[-1].strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
+                **metrics_from_daily_equity(horizon),
+                **trade_stats_for_window(result, cost, horizon.index[0], horizon.index[-1]),
+            }
+        )
+    return rows
+
+
+def format_cell(value: object) -> str:
+    if isinstance(value, float):
+        return f"{value:.6g}"
+    return str(value).replace("|", "\\|")
+
+
+def markdown_table(frame: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
+    rows = [list(frame.columns), ["---" for _ in frame.columns]]
+    rows.extend(frame.astype(object).where(pd.notna(frame), "").values.tolist())
+    return "\n".join("| " + " | ".join(format_cell(value) for value in row) + " |" for row in rows)
+
+
+def markdown_report(command: str, paths: list[Path], totals: pd.DataFrame, horizons: pd.DataFrame, monthly_summary: pd.DataFrame, worst_months: pd.DataFrame, qualified: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
+    primary = totals[totals["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST]
+    top = qualified.head(10) if len(qualified) else primary.head(10)
+    top_name = str(top.iloc[0]["name"]) if len(top) else ""
+    top_horizon = horizons[(horizons["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST) & (horizons["name"] == top_name)]
+    lines = [
+        "# BTC/ETH Short Overlay Search",
+        "",
+        f"Run command: `{command}`",
+        "",
+        "Output files:",
+        *[f"- `{path}`" for path in paths],
+        "",
+        "Scope: cached BTC/ETH perpetual candles only. All candidates are short-only overlays; no live OKX calls and no order submission.",
+        "Costs: maker_taker=0.0021 and taker_taker=0.0030 roundtrip on margin at 3x.",
+        "Candidate families: trend bounce failure, crash continuation, VWAP deviation fade, RSI overbought under downtrend, BB upper rejection, and ETH short by BTC downside.",
+        "",
+        f"Qualified maker_taker candidates with >=8 trades/month and positive 1y/6m/3m: {len(qualified)}.",
+        "",
+        "## Top qualified or fallback candidates",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(
+            top[
+                [
+                    "name",
+                    "family",
+                    "symbol",
+                    "signal_symbol",
+                    "bar",
+                    "trades",
+                    "trades_per_month",
+                    "net_total_return",
+                    "net_annualized_return",
+                    "net_max_drawdown",
+                    "net_calmar",
+                    "win_rate",
+                    "payoff_ratio",
+                    "profit_factor",
+                    "risk_reward_ratio",
+                    "worst_month_return",
+                ]
+            ]
+        ),
+        "",
+        "## Horizon metrics for top candidate",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(
+            top_horizon[
+                [
+                    "horizon",
+                    "horizon_start",
+                    "horizon_end",
+                    "net_total_return",
+                    "net_annualized_return",
+                    "net_max_drawdown",
+                    "net_calmar",
+                    "trades_per_month",
+                    "profit_factor",
+                    "risk_reward_ratio",
+                ]
+            ]
+        ),
+        "",
+        "## Monthly summary",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(monthly_summary.head(20)),
+        "",
+        "## Worst months",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(worst_months.head(20)),
+    ]
+    return "\n".join(lines) + "\n"
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--years", type=float, default=YEARS)
+    parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, default=OUTPUT_DIR)
+    parser.add_argument("--prefix", default=PREFIX)
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    strategies = build_strategies()
+    bars = sorted({strategy.bar for strategy in strategies})
+    data = {
+        (symbol, bar): load_candles(symbol, bar, args.years)
+        for bar in bars
+        for symbol in ("BTC-USDT-SWAP", "ETH-USDT-SWAP")
+    }
+
+    results: dict[str, tuple[Strategy, SegmentResult]] = {}
+    for index, strategy in enumerate(strategies, start=1):
+        results[strategy.name] = (strategy, run_strategy(strategy, data))
+        print(f"done {index}/{len(strategies)} {strategy.name}", flush=True)
+
+    start = max(pd.to_datetime(result.equity_curve[0]["ts"], unit="ms", utc=True) for _, result in results.values())
+    end = min(pd.to_datetime(result.equity_curve[-1]["ts"], unit="ms", utc=True) for _, result in results.values())
+
+    total_rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    horizon_output: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    monthly_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
+    for name, (strategy, result) in results.items():
+        for cost_model, cost_value in COSTS.items():
+            frame = cost_adjusted_equity_frame(result, cost_value)
+            daily = daily_equity(frame, start, end)
+            monthly = monthly_rows(name, daily)
+            worst = monthly.loc[monthly["return"].idxmin()]
+            stats = trade_stats_for_window(result, cost_value, start, end)
+            total_rows.append(
+                {
+                    "name": name,
+                    "cost_model": cost_model,
+                    "roundtrip_cost_on_margin": cost_value,
+                    "family": strategy.family,
+                    "symbol": strategy.symbol,
+                    "signal_symbol": strategy.signal_symbol,
+                    "bar": strategy.bar,
+                    "first_candle": start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
+                    "last_candle": end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
+                    "years": (end - start).total_seconds() / 86_400 / 365,
+                    "gross_total_return": result.total_return,
+                    "gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market": result.max_drawdown,
+                    "worst_month": str(worst["month"]),
+                    "worst_month_return": float(worst["return"]),
+                    **stats,
+                    **metrics_from_daily_equity(daily),
+                    **strategy.params,
+                }
+            )
+            for row in horizon_rows(name, result, cost_value, daily):
+                horizon_output.append({"cost_model": cost_model, "family": strategy.family, "symbol": strategy.symbol, "signal_symbol": strategy.signal_symbol, "bar": strategy.bar, **row})
+            monthly_frames.append(monthly.assign(cost_model=cost_model, family=strategy.family, symbol=strategy.symbol, signal_symbol=strategy.signal_symbol, bar=strategy.bar))
+
+    totals = pd.DataFrame(total_rows).sort_values(
+        ["cost_model", "net_calmar", "net_annualized_return", "trades_per_month"],
+        ascending=[True, False, False, False],
+    )
+    horizons = pd.DataFrame(horizon_output).sort_values(["cost_model", "name", "horizon"])
+    monthly_all = pd.concat(monthly_frames, ignore_index=True)
+    monthly_summary = (
+        monthly_all[monthly_all["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST]
+        .groupby(["name", "family", "symbol", "signal_symbol", "bar"], as_index=False)
+        .agg(
+            positive_months=("return", lambda values: int((values > 0.0).sum())),
+            negative_months=("return", lambda values: int((values < 0.0).sum())),
+            avg_month_return=("return", "mean"),
+            worst_month_return=("return", "min"),
+        )
+        .sort_values(["avg_month_return", "worst_month_return"], ascending=False)
+    )
+    worst_months = monthly_all.sort_values("return").head(50)
+
+    primary_horizon = horizons[horizons["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST]
+    recent = primary_horizon[primary_horizon["horizon"].isin(("1y", "6m", "3m"))].pivot_table(index="name", columns="horizon", values="net_total_return", aggfunc="min")
+    recent_positive = set(recent[(recent.reindex(columns=["1y", "6m", "3m"]) > 0.0).all(axis=1)].index)
+    qualified = totals[
+        (totals["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST)
+        & (totals["trades_per_month"] >= 8.0)
+        & (totals["name"].isin(recent_positive))
+        & (totals["net_total_return"] > -1.0)
+        & totals["net_total_return"].notna()
+        & totals["net_calmar"].notna()
+        & (totals["net_max_drawdown"] <= 0.65)
+    ].sort_values(["net_calmar", "net_annualized_return", "trades_per_month"], ascending=[False, False, False])
+
+    args.output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    total_path = args.output_dir / f"{args.prefix}-totals.csv"
+    horizon_path = args.output_dir / f"{args.prefix}-horizons.csv"
+    monthly_path = args.output_dir / f"{args.prefix}-monthly.csv"
+    qualified_path = args.output_dir / f"{args.prefix}-qualified.csv"
+    summary_path = args.output_dir / f"{args.prefix}-summary.json"
+    report_path = args.output_dir / f"{args.prefix}-report.md"
+    totals.to_csv(total_path, index=False)
+    horizons.to_csv(horizon_path, index=False)
+    monthly_all.to_csv(monthly_path, index=False)
+    qualified.to_csv(qualified_path, index=False)
+    summary = {
+        "years_requested": args.years,
+        "strategy_count": len(strategies),
+        "qualified_count": int(len(qualified)),
+        "top_name": str((qualified if len(qualified) else totals[totals["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST]).iloc[0]["name"]),
+        "output_files": [str(path) for path in (total_path, horizon_path, monthly_path, qualified_path, summary_path, report_path)],
+    }
+    summary_path.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n", encoding="utf-8")
+    report_path.write_text(
+        markdown_report(
+            " ".join(sys.argv),
+            [total_path, horizon_path, monthly_path, qualified_path, summary_path, report_path],
+            totals,
+            horizons,
+            monthly_summary,
+            worst_months,
+            qualified,
+        ),
+        encoding="utf-8",
+    )
+    print(f"wrote {report_path}")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())