research: add eth regime router exploration

reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-horizon.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,193 @@
+cost_model,name,horizon,horizon_start,horizon_end,net_total_return,net_annualized_return,net_max_drawdown,net_calmar,net_sharpe_daily,risk_return_ratio
+maker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,all,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9860944326315363,-0.49028237593330404,0.9895315779703528,-0.4954691561626882,-1.634841207215987,-0.9965264925189486
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+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,3y,2023-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9446977777383093,-0.6186738646414367,0.9446977777383093,-0.6548907801208097,-3.01702900950675,-1.0
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.6909036250894073,-0.6909036250894073,0.698369264500804,-0.9893098969400762,-3.5050427356365703,-0.9893098969400762
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.42272666588937535,-0.667760011810594,0.4638774453869205,-1.439518171127322,-3.4405389062311653,-0.9112895444545245
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.3163738119267019,-0.7861555293731556,0.3245817377995364,-2.4220571825845907,-4.907421288781429,-0.9747122991931734
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,all,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9988039368948222,-0.6537450537856465,0.9989361618787765,-0.6544412733603493,-2.6840908265265937,-0.9998676342002619
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,10y,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9988039368948222,-0.6537450537856465,0.9989361618787765,-0.6544412733603493,-2.6840908265265937,-0.9998676342002619
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,3y,2023-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.977921371027611,-0.7191371111321211,0.9779213710276111,-0.735373141888129,-3.822907029697158,-0.9999999999999999
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.7020258308774338,-0.7020258308774338,0.7092228344049682,-0.989852267611247,-3.5779959056434016,-0.989852267611247
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.4284152391508742,-0.6742933984178097,0.47433836413327163,-1.4215451445718568,-3.420386120292745,-0.9031848813951412
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.3314352157755559,-0.804629162730914,0.33946230760708407,-2.3703048753861786,-5.068763713823045,-0.9763535106795442
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,all,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.995184875039668,-0.5687462249042348,0.9958316999444916,-0.5711268529972857,-2.2569886425443695,-0.9993504676494436
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,10y,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.995184875039668,-0.5687462249042348,0.9958316999444916,-0.5711268529972857,-2.2569886425443695,-0.9993504676494436
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,3y,2023-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9451018509378426,-0.6196040244961506,0.9451018509378426,-0.6555949751672856,-3.1143017303598906,-1.0
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.6867701545060654,-0.6867701545060654,0.6943356300960707,-0.9891040078283776,-3.5310328019696495,-0.9891040078283776
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.4227266658893756,-0.6677600118105942,0.4638774453869208,-1.4395181711273215,-3.4405389062311706,-0.9112895444545245
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.3163738119267019,-0.7861555293731556,0.32458173779953636,-2.422057182584591,-4.907421288781428,-0.9747122991931735
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,all,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9992194773478678,-0.6762735278722187,0.9994014619880426,-0.6766785457036985,-3.1240028176638965,-0.9998179063698658
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,10y,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9992194773478678,-0.6762735278722187,0.9994014619880426,-0.6766785457036985,-3.1240028176638965,-0.9998179063698658
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,3y,2023-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9822910770867116,-0.739026243189848,0.9822910770867116,-0.7523495432552021,-4.204724545631327,-1.0
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.7603895485867938,-0.7603895485867938,0.7685028427639334,-0.9894427271759203,-4.597212681213492,-0.9894427271759203
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.45802423245681645,-0.7072492009674776,0.5007099748304478,-1.4124927333572073,-4.12894805858769,-0.9147495665767679
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.3305830185975889,-0.8036172283518486,0.33862034229470067,-2.3732101352979615,-5.408374025263106,-0.9762644983386234
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,all,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9925499041523876,-0.5380335533378371,0.9945396429963449,-0.5409875384322055,-2.327480946228485,-0.9979993368208404
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,10y,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9925499041523876,-0.5380335533378371,0.9945396429963449,-0.5409875384322055,-2.327480946228485,-0.9979993368208404
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,3y,2023-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9246554971864435,-0.5773066781407523,0.9265203223135691,-0.6230912201679373,-3.1412168567580943,-0.9979872809238883
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.6174362056238286,-0.6174362056238286,0.6395380378304418,-0.965440941899889,-3.5607181017797287,-0.965440941899889
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.31280792770523413,-0.5287394277407461,0.385561046246775,-1.3713507442925938,-2.857872868249178,-0.8113058379477063
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.15980182813309918,-0.5064559573241865,0.19043539627342587,-2.659463352059931,-2.8808582804443716,-0.8391393158006024
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+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,10y,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9991595837364329,-0.6724789475845104,0.9993555330159375,-0.6729126175496802,-3.122837430993302,-0.9998039243562166
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+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.7519143046250443,-0.7519143046250443,0.7603145735442252,-0.9889515876566422,-4.6132360521522395,-0.9889515876566422
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.45802423245681745,-0.7072492009674787,0.5007099748304484,-1.4124927333572075,-4.1289480585877,-0.9147495665767686
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.3305830185975899,-0.8036172283518497,0.33862034229470156,-2.3732101352979584,-5.4083740252631145,-0.9762644983386237
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+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,10y,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9919782190838875,-0.532618584458192,0.9941206410624746,-0.5357685601306412,-2.3139870413719184,-0.9978449074588198
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+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,10y,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.9992089903642348,-0.6755918019920857,0.9993918373216475,-0.6760029217395449,-3.091678545593487,-0.9998170417742227
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+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,-0.7603895485867936,-0.7603895485867936,0.7685028427639333,-0.9894427271759203,-4.597212681213485,-0.9894427271759203
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reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-regime-contribution.csv

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+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,411,-0.7524071799999996,0.5815085158150851,0.8055640002442573
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,538,-1.8385074299999995,0.516728624535316,0.5228239865718515
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,928,-0.15209644999999927,0.6368534482758621,0.9772467479970849
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,429,-0.8168736399999995,0.5827505827505828,0.8004895722335439
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,1079,-3.575545439999999,0.5430954587581094,0.5237380815287919
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,928,-0.15209644999999927,0.6368534482758621,0.9772467479970849
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,430,-0.8489736399999996,0.5813953488372093,0.7942625582556142
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,538,-1.8385074299999995,0.516728624535316,0.5228239865718515
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,912,-0.14859755999999968,0.6381578947368421,0.9773016395514924
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,412,-0.7845071799999996,0.5800970873786407,0.7989366318393245
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,1079,-3.575545439999999,0.5430954587581094,0.5237380815287919
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,912,-0.14859755999999968,0.6381578947368421,0.9773016395514924
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,413,-0.8166071799999994,0.5786924939467313,0.7924174202399676
+maker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,538,-1.8385074299999995,0.516728624535316,0.5228239865718515
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,426,-1.1516896900000002,0.5704225352112676,0.723360410307096
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1544,-2.0007404300000005,0.5893782383419689,0.8329079877909459
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,843,-3.16512726,0.5148279952550415,0.47333788650615227
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,427,-1.1846896900000001,0.5690866510538641,0.7176716376798048
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,488,-1.78058485,0.5225409836065574,0.49791948369148753
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1544,-2.0007404300000005,0.5893782383419689,0.8329079877909459
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,409,-1.1040232300000001,0.5672371638141809,0.7215677430871655
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1502,-1.9142474300000005,0.5898801597869507,0.833424374783037
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,843,-3.16512726,0.5148279952550415,0.47333788650615227
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,410,-1.1370232300000003,0.5658536585365853,0.7156120416815888
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,488,-1.78058485,0.5225409836065574,0.49791948369148753
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1502,-1.9142474300000005,0.5898801597869507,0.833424374783037
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,428,-1.2176896900000003,0.5677570093457944,0.712071644067051
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1544,-2.0007404300000005,0.5893782383419689,0.8329079877909459
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,843,-3.16512726,0.5148279952550415,0.47333788650615227
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,429,-1.2506896900000002,0.5664335664335665,0.7065583673310725
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,488,-1.78058485,0.5225409836065574,0.49791948369148753
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1544,-2.0007404300000005,0.5893782383419689,0.8329079877909459
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,411,-1.1700232300000002,0.5644768856447688,0.7097538502037014
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1502,-1.9142474300000005,0.5898801597869507,0.833424374783037
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,843,-3.16512726,0.5148279952550415,0.47333788650615227
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,412,-1.2030232300000003,0.5631067961165048,0.7039907933711931
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,488,-1.78058485,0.5225409836065574,0.49791948369148753
+taker_taker,router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,1502,-1.9142474300000005,0.5898801597869507,0.833424374783037
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,926,-1.06985002,0.6079913606911447,0.8471517097751439
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,427,-1.1369736400000003,0.5714285714285714,0.7288175095750925
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,1079,-4.54664544,0.4856348470806302,0.43006716542315193
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,926,-1.06985002,0.6079913606911447,0.8471517097751439
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,428,-1.1699736400000003,0.5700934579439252,0.7231258479328834
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,538,-2.3227074300000004,0.4646840148698885,0.43342300590392463
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,910,-1.0519511300000002,0.6087912087912087,0.8465456911285667
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,410,-1.08930718,0.5682926829268292,0.7273085736140222
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,1079,-4.54664544,0.4856348470806302,0.43006716542315193
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,910,-1.0519511300000002,0.6087912087912087,0.8465456911285667
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,411,-1.1223071800000002,0.5669099756690997,0.7213494722111461
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,538,-2.3227074300000004,0.4646840148698885,0.43342300590392463
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,928,-0.98729645,0.6088362068965517,0.8589460471033405
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,429,-1.2029736400000002,0.5687645687645687,0.7175223948890653
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,1079,-4.54664544,0.4856348470806302,0.43006716542315193
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,928,-0.98729645,0.6088362068965517,0.8589460471033405
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,430,-1.2359736400000003,0.5674418604651162,0.7120051156438645
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,538,-2.3227074300000004,0.4646840148698885,0.43342300590392463
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,912,-0.9693975600000002,0.6096491228070176,0.8585882667463329
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,412,-1.1553071800000003,0.5655339805825242,0.7154872273607671
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,1079,-4.54664544,0.4856348470806302,0.43006716542315193
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,trend_follow,912,-0.9693975600000002,0.6096491228070176,0.8585882667463329
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,btc_lead,413,-1.1883071800000002,0.5641646489104116,0.7097194967044788
+taker_taker,router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9,mean_reversion,538,-2.3227074300000004,0.4646840148698885,0.43342300590392463

reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-report.md

@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
+# ETH regime router variants
+
+Run command: `rtk .venv/bin/python /home/lxy/okx-codex-trader/scripts/search_eth_regime_router_variants.py --bar 15m --years 10.0`
+
+Output files:
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-total.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-horizon.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-monthly.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-regime-contribution.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-top10.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-summary.json`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-report.md`
+
+Router actions: trend_follow, mean_reversion, btc_lead, or cash. Regime inputs: BTC/ETH volatility, trend distance from SMA, rolling correlation, ETH/BTC ratio z-score, UTC hour, and ETH volume ratio.
+Costs: maker_taker, taker_taker. Primary sort uses maker_taker, qualified horizons, Calmar, annualized return, and drawdown.
+
+Decision: Best maker_taker router `router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9`: annualized=-0.3870, DD=0.9696, Calmar=-0.3991, win_rate=0.6038, profit_factor=0.8528.
+
+## Top maker_taker routers
+
+| name | trades | net_total_return | net_annualized_return | net_max_drawdown | net_calmar | win_rate | profit_loss_ratio | profit_factor | risk_return_ratio | min_horizon_total_return |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2400 | -0.955163 | -0.387002 | 0.969594 | -0.399138 | 0.60375 | 0.559678 | 0.852759 | -0.985116 | -0.955163 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1863 | -0.956355 | -0.389601 | 0.96872 | -0.402182 | 0.589909 | 0.559196 | 0.804393 | -0.987236 | -0.956355 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1859 | -0.957088 | -0.391229 | 0.970602 | -0.403078 | 0.590102 | 0.557157 | 0.802101 | -0.986077 | -0.957088 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2402 | -0.957995 | -0.393275 | 0.969594 | -0.405608 | 0.603247 | 0.558878 | 0.849753 | -0.988038 | -0.957995 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1896 | -0.958241 | -0.393837 | 0.970071 | -0.405987 | 0.59019 | 0.55991 | 0.806357 | -0.987805 | -0.958241 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1892 | -0.958943 | -0.395453 | 0.971872 | -0.406898 | 0.590381 | 0.55792 | 0.804125 | -0.986696 | -0.958943 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2459 | -0.959339 | -0.396377 | 0.97108 | -0.408181 | 0.603497 | 0.560825 | 0.853605 | -0.987909 | -0.959339 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2461 | -0.961908 | -0.402554 | 0.97108 | -0.414542 | 0.603007 | 0.560063 | 0.8507 | -0.990554 | -0.961908 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2754 | -0.984666 | -0.482387 | 0.989435 | -0.487537 | 0.599492 | 0.54694 | 0.818674 | -0.99518 | -0.984666 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2756 | -0.985635 | -0.487683 | 0.989435 | -0.492891 | 0.599057 | 0.546215 | 0.81611 | -0.996159 | -0.985635 |
+
+## Horizon checks
+
+| name | horizon | net_total_return | net_annualized_return | net_max_drawdown | net_calmar | risk_return_ratio |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.959339 | -0.396359 | 0.97108 | -0.408163 | -0.987909 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.959339 | -0.396359 | 0.97108 | -0.408163 | -0.987909 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.850827 | -0.469342 | 0.850827 | -0.551631 | -1 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.593969 | -0.593969 | 0.604835 | -0.982034 | -0.982034 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.335409 | -0.55931 | 0.391019 | -1.43039 | -0.857783 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.257122 | -0.70043 | 0.266694 | -2.62635 | -0.964111 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.984666 | -0.482367 | 0.989435 | -0.487517 | -0.99518 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.984666 | -0.482367 | 0.989435 | -0.487517 | -0.99518 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.929665 | -0.586882 | 0.929665 | -0.631283 | -1 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.594588 | -0.594588 | 0.605438 | -0.98208 | -0.98208 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.328195 | -0.549663 | 0.397495 | -1.38282 | -0.825657 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.266909 | -0.716117 | 0.276354 | -2.5913 | -0.965822 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.955163 | -0.386985 | 0.969594 | -0.39912 | -0.985116 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.955163 | -0.386985 | 0.969594 | -0.39912 | -0.985116 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.855471 | -0.474901 | 0.855471 | -0.555135 | -1 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.590022 | -0.590022 | 0.600994 | -0.981744 | -0.981744 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.335409 | -0.55931 | 0.391019 | -1.43039 | -0.857783 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.257122 | -0.70043 | 0.266694 | -2.62635 | -0.964111 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.961908 | -0.402536 | 0.97108 | -0.414523 | -0.990554 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.961908 | -0.402536 | 0.97108 | -0.414523 | -0.990554 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.850827 | -0.469342 | 0.850827 | -0.551631 | -1 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.593969 | -0.593969 | 0.604835 | -0.982034 | -0.982034 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.335409 | -0.55931 | 0.391019 | -1.43039 | -0.857783 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.257122 | -0.70043 | 0.266694 | -2.62635 | -0.964111 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.985635 | -0.487663 | 0.989435 | -0.49287 | -0.996159 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.985635 | -0.487663 | 0.989435 | -0.49287 | -0.996159 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.929665 | -0.586882 | 0.929665 | -0.631283 | -1 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.594588 | -0.594588 | 0.605438 | -0.98208 | -0.98208 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.328195 | -0.549663 | 0.397495 | -1.38282 | -0.825657 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.266909 | -0.716117 | 0.276354 | -2.5913 | -0.965822 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.957995 | -0.393257 | 0.969594 | -0.40559 | -0.988038 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.957995 | -0.393257 | 0.969594 | -0.40559 | -0.988038 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.855471 | -0.474901 | 0.855471 | -0.555135 | -1 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.590022 | -0.590022 | 0.600994 | -0.981744 | -0.981744 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.335409 | -0.55931 | 0.391019 | -1.43039 | -0.857783 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.257122 | -0.70043 | 0.266694 | -2.62635 | -0.964111 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.958943 | -0.395435 | 0.971872 | -0.40688 | -0.986696 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.958943 | -0.395435 | 0.971872 | -0.40688 | -0.986696 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.836429 | -0.452806 | 0.84266 | -0.537353 | -0.992605 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.540791 | -0.540791 | 0.574378 | -0.941523 | -0.941523 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.241743 | -0.42592 | 0.339022 | -1.25632 | -0.713061 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.114654 | -0.389742 | 0.159354 | -2.44575 | -0.719491 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.957088 | -0.391211 | 0.970602 | -0.40306 | -0.986077 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.957088 | -0.391211 | 0.970602 | -0.40306 | -0.986077 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.827745 | -0.443297 | 0.834307 | -0.531336 | -0.992135 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.525418 | -0.525418 | 0.56013 | -0.938029 | -0.938029 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.241743 | -0.42592 | 0.339022 | -1.25632 | -0.713061 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.114654 | -0.389742 | 0.159354 | -2.44575 | -0.719491 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.958241 | -0.393819 | 0.970071 | -0.405969 | -0.987805 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.958241 | -0.393819 | 0.970071 | -0.405969 | -0.987805 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.836429 | -0.452806 | 0.84266 | -0.537353 | -0.992605 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.540791 | -0.540791 | 0.574378 | -0.941523 | -0.941523 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.241743 | -0.42592 | 0.339022 | -1.25632 | -0.713061 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.114654 | -0.389742 | 0.159354 | -2.44575 | -0.719491 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | all | -0.956355 | -0.389584 | 0.96872 | -0.402164 | -0.987236 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 10y | -0.956355 | -0.389584 | 0.96872 | -0.402164 | -0.987236 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3y | -0.827745 | -0.443297 | 0.834307 | -0.531336 | -0.992135 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 1y | -0.525418 | -0.525418 | 0.56013 | -0.938029 | -0.938029 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 6m | -0.241743 | -0.42592 | 0.339022 | -1.25632 | -0.713061 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 3m | -0.114654 | -0.389742 | 0.159354 | -2.44575 | -0.719491 |
+
+## Regime contribution
+
+| name | regime | trades | net_return_contribution | win_rate | profit_factor |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 1544 | -0.61114 | 0.621762 | 0.946511 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 427 | -0.80039 | 0.583138 | 0.801529 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 488 | -1.34138 | 0.563525 | 0.599155 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 1502 | -0.562447 | 0.623169 | 0.94868 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 409 | -0.735923 | 0.581907 | 0.806747 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 843 | -2.40643 | 0.565836 | 0.57514 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 1502 | -0.562447 | 0.623169 | 0.94868 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 410 | -0.768023 | 0.580488 | 0.800003 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 488 | -1.34138 | 0.563525 | 0.599155 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 1544 | -0.61114 | 0.621762 | 0.946511 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 429 | -0.86459 | 0.58042 | 0.788969 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 488 | -1.34138 | 0.563525 | 0.599155 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 1502 | -0.562447 | 0.623169 | 0.94868 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 411 | -0.800123 | 0.579075 | 0.793372 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 843 | -2.40643 | 0.565836 | 0.57514 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 1502 | -0.562447 | 0.623169 | 0.94868 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 412 | -0.832223 | 0.57767 | 0.786849 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 488 | -1.34138 | 0.563525 | 0.599155 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 926 | -0.23645 | 0.636069 | 0.964628 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 428 | -0.784774 | 0.584112 | 0.806815 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 538 | -1.83851 | 0.516729 | 0.522824 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 910 | -0.232951 | 0.637363 | 0.964417 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 411 | -0.752407 | 0.581509 | 0.805564 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 538 | -1.83851 | 0.516729 | 0.522824 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 928 | -0.152096 | 0.636853 | 0.977247 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 430 | -0.848974 | 0.581395 | 0.794263 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 538 | -1.83851 | 0.516729 | 0.522824 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | trend_follow | 912 | -0.148598 | 0.638158 | 0.977302 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | btc_lead | 413 | -0.816607 | 0.578692 | 0.792417 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | mean_reversion | 538 | -1.83851 | 0.516729 | 0.522824 |
+
+## Worst months among top routers
+
+| name | month | return |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.27267 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.27267 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.27267 |
+| router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.27267 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-03 | -0.238631 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-03 | -0.238631 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2024-12 | -0.225507 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2024-12 | -0.225507 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.222349 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.222349 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.222349 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.222349 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2024-12 | -0.221004 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2024-12 | -0.221004 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-07 | -0.217013 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-07 | -0.217013 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-07 | -0.217013 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-07 | -0.217013 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.216169 |
+| router-t192-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9 | 2021-06 | -0.216169 |

reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,407 @@
+{
+  "report": "eth-regime-router",
+  "command": "rtk .venv/bin/python /home/lxy/okx-codex-trader/scripts/search_eth_regime_router_variants.py --bar 15m --years 10.0",
+  "primary_cost": "maker_taker",
+  "candidate_count": 16,
+  "top_maker_taker": [
+    {
+      "name": "router-t192-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9",
+      "cost_model": "maker_taker",
+      "symbol": "ETH-USDT-SWAP",
+      "signal_symbol": "BTC-USDT-SWAP",
+      "bar": "15m",
+      "first_candle": "2019-12-27 00:00",
+      "last_candle": "2026-04-29 13:30",
+      "years": 6.344006849315068,
+      "trades": 2400,
+      "gross_total_return": 5.940775754794676,
+      "gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market": 0.35156856808674697,
+      "risk_return_ratio": -0.9851164194240394,
+      "min_horizon_total_return": -0.955162838922995,
+      "trend_sma": 192,
+      "vol_lookback": 96,
+      "corr_lookback": 192,
+      "ratio_lookback": 192,
+      "lead_lookback": 16,
+      "eth_trend_min": 0.006,
+      "btc_trend_min": 0.0036,
+      "max_eth_vol": 0.018,
+      "min_corr": 0.6,
+      "ratio_z_entry": 1.5,
+      "lead_return_min": 0.016,
+      "lag_gap_min": 0.006,
+      "min_volume_ratio": 0.9,
+      "stop_loss_pct": 0.01,
+      "take_profit_pct": 0.022,
+      "max_hold_bars": 48,
+      "net_total_return": -0.955162838922995,
+      "net_annualized_return": -0.38700215542696736,
+      "net_max_drawdown": 0.9695938673740134,
+      "net_calmar": -0.39913841088444535,
+      "net_sharpe_daily": -1.2567960415186865,
+      "win_rate": 0.60375,
+      "profit_loss_ratio": 0.5596782397494123,
+      "profit_factor": 0.8527589583563601
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9",
+      "cost_model": "maker_taker",
+      "symbol": "ETH-USDT-SWAP",
+      "signal_symbol": "BTC-USDT-SWAP",
+      "bar": "15m",
+      "first_candle": "2019-12-27 00:00",
+      "last_candle": "2026-04-29 13:30",
+      "years": 6.344006849315068,
+      "trades": 1863,
+      "gross_total_return": 1.1897247420572676,
+      "gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market": 0.4373893656736209,
+      "risk_return_ratio": -0.9872364731667305,
+      "min_horizon_total_return": -0.9563553603974775,
+      "trend_sma": 96,
+      "vol_lookback": 96,
+      "corr_lookback": 192,
+      "ratio_lookback": 192,
+      "lead_lookback": 16,
+      "eth_trend_min": 0.006,
+      "btc_trend_min": 0.0036,
+      "max_eth_vol": 0.024,
+      "min_corr": 0.6,
+      "ratio_z_entry": 1.5,
+      "lead_return_min": 0.016,
+      "lag_gap_min": 0.006,
+      "min_volume_ratio": 0.9,
+      "stop_loss_pct": 0.01,
+      "take_profit_pct": 0.022,
+      "max_hold_bars": 48,
+      "net_total_return": -0.9563553603974775,
+      "net_annualized_return": -0.3896013661105573,
+      "net_max_drawdown": 0.9687196395102822,
+      "net_calmar": -0.40218175643420717,
+      "net_sharpe_daily": -1.4469901589090093,
+      "win_rate": 0.5899087493290391,
+      "profit_loss_ratio": 0.5591959495820652,
+      "profit_factor": 0.8043931264276043
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.6-rz1.5-br0.016-liq0.9",
+      "cost_model": "maker_taker",
+      "symbol": "ETH-USDT-SWAP",
+      "signal_symbol": "BTC-USDT-SWAP",
+      "bar": "15m",
+      "first_candle": "2019-12-27 00:00",
+      "last_candle": "2026-04-29 13:30",
+      "years": 6.344006849315068,
+      "trades": 1859,
+      "gross_total_return": 1.1350241107690668,
+      "gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market": 0.437389365673621,
+      "risk_return_ratio": -0.9860769074762272,
+      "min_horizon_total_return": -0.9570882848160445,
+      "trend_sma": 96,
+      "vol_lookback": 96,
+      "corr_lookback": 192,
+      "ratio_lookback": 192,
+      "lead_lookback": 16,
+      "eth_trend_min": 0.006,
+      "btc_trend_min": 0.0036,
+      "max_eth_vol": 0.018,
+      "min_corr": 0.6,
+      "ratio_z_entry": 1.5,
+      "lead_return_min": 0.016,
+      "lag_gap_min": 0.006,
+      "min_volume_ratio": 0.9,
+      "stop_loss_pct": 0.01,
+      "take_profit_pct": 0.022,
+      "max_hold_bars": 48,
+      "net_total_return": -0.9570882848160445,
+      "net_annualized_return": -0.391228678620991,
+      "net_max_drawdown": 0.9706020672014555,
+      "net_calmar": -0.40307834883251764,
+      "net_sharpe_daily": -1.4725090573507318,
+      "win_rate": 0.5901022054868209,
+      "profit_loss_ratio": 0.5571565271453871,
+      "profit_factor": 0.8021006696568106
+    },
+    {
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+      "profit_factor": 0.816109532252742
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+  ],
+  "output_files": [
+    "reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-total.csv",
+    "reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-horizon.csv",
+    "reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-monthly.csv",
+    "reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-regime-contribution.csv",
+    "reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-top10.csv",
+    "reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-summary.json",
+    "reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-report.md"
+  ]
+}

reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-top10.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
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reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-router-total.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
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+router-t96-et0.006-v0.024-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,taker_taker,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 13:30,6.344006849315068,2436,0.19415843292411936,0.7030202701493902,-0.9998170417742227,-0.9992089903642348,96,96,192,192,16,0.006,0.0036,0.024,0.45,1.0,0.016,0.006,0.9,0.01,0.022,48,-0.9992089903642348,-0.6756131587895013,0.9993918373216475,-0.6760242915332716,-3.091678545593487,0.5472085385878489,0.5376550954866104,0.6497681253704911
+router-t96-et0.006-v0.018-c0.45-rz1.0-br0.016-liq0.9,taker_taker,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,2019-12-27 00:00,2026-04-29 13:30,6.344006849315068,2432,0.16432764237565442,0.7030202701493913,-0.9998179063698658,-0.9992194773478678,96,96,192,192,16,0.006,0.0036,0.018,0.45,1.0,0.016,0.006,0.9,0.01,0.022,48,-0.9992194773478678,-0.6762948796130488,0.9994014619880426,-0.6766999102320108,-3.1240028176638965,0.5472861842105263,0.5357748572772701,0.6476987602507235

scripts/search_eth_regime_router_variants.py

@@ -0,0 +1,651 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import sys
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from itertools import product
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT))
+
+from scripts import explore_ultrashort as explore
+
+
+ETH_SYMBOL = "ETH-USDT-SWAP"
+BTC_SYMBOL = "BTC-USDT-SWAP"
+PREFIX = "eth-regime-router"
+OUTPUT_DIR = Path("reports/eth-exploration")
+YEARS = 10.0
+BAR = "15m"
+PRIMARY_COST = "maker_taker"
+COSTS = {
+    "maker_taker": 0.0021,
+    "taker_taker": 0.0030,
+}
+HORIZONS = (
+    ("all", None),
+    ("10y", pd.DateOffset(years=10)),
+    ("3y", pd.DateOffset(years=3)),
+    ("1y", pd.DateOffset(years=1)),
+    ("6m", pd.DateOffset(months=6)),
+    ("3m", pd.DateOffset(months=3)),
+)
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class RouterSpec:
+    name: str
+    trend_sma: int
+    vol_lookback: int
+    corr_lookback: int
+    ratio_lookback: int
+    lead_lookback: int
+    eth_trend_min: float
+    btc_trend_min: float
+    max_eth_vol: float
+    min_corr: float
+    ratio_z_entry: float
+    lead_return_min: float
+    lag_gap_min: float
+    min_volume_ratio: float
+    stop_loss_pct: float
+    take_profit_pct: float
+    max_hold_bars: int
+
+
+def load_candles(symbol: str, bar: str, years: float) -> list[explore.Candle]:
+    candles, _ = explore.load_cached_candles(explore.CANDLE_CACHE_DIR, symbol, bar)
+    if not candles:
+        raise FileNotFoundError(f"missing cached candles for {symbol} {bar}")
+    requested = explore.history_bars_for_years(bar, years)
+    return candles[-requested:] if len(candles) > requested else candles
+
+
+def close_position(
+    *,
+    trades: list[dict[str, object]],
+    exits: list[dict[str, object]],
+    position: dict[str, object],
+    account_equity: float,
+    candle: explore.Candle,
+    exit_price: float,
+    leverage: int,
+) -> tuple[float, bool]:
+    margin_used = float(position["margin_used"])
+    exit_equity = explore.trade_equity(
+        side="long",
+        margin_used=margin_used,
+        entry_price=float(position["entry_price"]),
+        exit_price=exit_price,
+        leverage=leverage,
+    )
+    pnl = exit_equity - margin_used
+    trades.append(
+        {
+            "side": "Long",
+            "entry_time": explore._format_ts(int(position["entry_time"])),
+            "exit_time": explore._format_ts(candle.ts),
+            "entry_price": round(float(position["entry_price"]), 4),
+            "exit_price": round(exit_price, 4),
+            "pnl": round(pnl, 4),
+            "return_pct": round(pnl / account_equity * 100, 6),
+            "cost_weight": 1.0,
+            "regime": str(position["regime"]),
+        }
+    )
+    exits.append({"ts": candle.ts, "price": exit_price, "side": "long", "regime": str(position["regime"])})
+    return account_equity + pnl, pnl > 0.0
+
+
+def regime_action(
+    *,
+    index: int,
+    eth: list[explore.Candle],
+    btc: list[explore.Candle],
+    eth_close: pd.Series,
+    btc_close: pd.Series,
+    eth_volume: pd.Series,
+    eth_sma: pd.Series,
+    btc_sma: pd.Series,
+    eth_vol: pd.Series,
+    btc_vol: pd.Series,
+    corr: pd.Series,
+    ratio_z: pd.Series,
+    volume_ratio: pd.Series,
+    eth_rsi: list[float],
+    spec: RouterSpec,
+) -> str:
+    values = (
+        eth_sma.iloc[index],
+        btc_sma.iloc[index],
+        eth_vol.iloc[index],
+        btc_vol.iloc[index],
+        corr.iloc[index],
+        ratio_z.iloc[index],
+        volume_ratio.iloc[index],
+    )
+    if any(value != value for value in values):
+        return "cash"
+
+    eth_trend = eth_close.iloc[index] / eth_sma.iloc[index] - 1.0
+    btc_trend = btc_close.iloc[index] / btc_sma.iloc[index] - 1.0
+    eth_ret = eth_close.iloc[index] / eth_close.iloc[index - spec.lead_lookback] - 1.0
+    btc_ret = btc_close.iloc[index] / btc_close.iloc[index - spec.lead_lookback] - 1.0
+    current_rsi = eth_rsi[index]
+    if current_rsi != current_rsi:
+        return "cash"
+    hour = pd.to_datetime(eth[index].ts, unit="ms", utc=True).hour
+    liquid = volume_ratio.iloc[index] >= spec.min_volume_ratio and hour not in (0, 1, 2, 3)
+    calm = eth_vol.iloc[index] <= spec.max_eth_vol and btc_vol.iloc[index] <= spec.max_eth_vol * 0.85
+    coupled = corr.iloc[index] >= spec.min_corr
+
+    if not liquid:
+        return "cash"
+    if coupled and calm and eth_trend >= spec.eth_trend_min and btc_trend >= spec.btc_trend_min and current_rsi <= 8.0:
+        return "trend_follow"
+    if coupled and btc_ret >= spec.lead_return_min and btc_ret - eth_ret >= spec.lag_gap_min and calm and current_rsi <= 35.0:
+        return "btc_lead"
+    if abs(eth_trend) < spec.eth_trend_min and ratio_z.iloc[index] <= -spec.ratio_z_entry and calm and current_rsi <= 15.0:
+        return "mean_reversion"
+    return "cash"
+
+
+def run_router_segment(
+    *,
+    eth: list[explore.Candle],
+    btc: list[explore.Candle],
+    spec: RouterSpec,
+    leverage: int,
+) -> explore.SegmentResult:
+    eth_close = pd.Series([candle.close for candle in eth], dtype=float)
+    btc_close = pd.Series([candle.close for candle in btc], dtype=float)
+    eth_volume = pd.Series([candle.volume for candle in eth], dtype=float)
+    eth_rsi = explore._compute_rsi(eth_close, 2)
+    eth_ret = eth_close.pct_change()
+    btc_ret = btc_close.pct_change()
+    ratio = eth_close / btc_close
+    ratio_mean = ratio.rolling(spec.ratio_lookback).mean()
+    ratio_std = ratio.rolling(spec.ratio_lookback).std(ddof=0)
+    ratio_z = (ratio - ratio_mean) / ratio_std
+    eth_sma = eth_close.rolling(spec.trend_sma).mean()
+    btc_sma = btc_close.rolling(spec.trend_sma).mean()
+    eth_vol = eth_ret.rolling(spec.vol_lookback).std(ddof=0)
+    btc_vol = btc_ret.rolling(spec.vol_lookback).std(ddof=0)
+    corr = eth_ret.rolling(spec.corr_lookback).corr(btc_ret)
+    volume_ratio = eth_volume / eth_volume.rolling(spec.vol_lookback).median()
+    warmup = max(spec.trend_sma, spec.vol_lookback, spec.corr_lookback, spec.ratio_lookback, spec.lead_lookback + 1)
+
+    equity = explore.INITIAL_EQUITY
+    ending_equity = equity
+    peak_equity = equity
+    max_drawdown = 0.0
+    wins = 0
+    trades: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    entries: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    exits: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    equity_curve: list[dict[str, float | int]] = []
+    position: dict[str, object] | None = None
+    pending_entry: str | None = None
+    pending_exit = False
+
+    for index in range(warmup, len(eth)):
+        candle = eth[index]
+        if pending_exit and position is not None:
+            equity, won = close_position(
+                trades=trades,
+                exits=exits,
+                position=position,
+                account_equity=equity,
+                candle=candle,
+                exit_price=candle.open,
+                leverage=leverage,
+            )
+            wins += 1 if won else 0
+            position = None
+            pending_exit = False
+        if pending_entry is not None and position is None and equity > 0.0:
+            position = {
+                "side": "long",
+                "regime": pending_entry,
+                "entry_time": candle.ts,
+                "entry_price": candle.open,
+                "entry_index": index,
+                "margin_used": equity,
+                "stop_price": candle.open * (1.0 - spec.stop_loss_pct),
+                "take_profit_price": candle.open * (1.0 + spec.take_profit_pct),
+            }
+            entries.append({"ts": candle.ts, "price": candle.open, "side": "long", "regime": pending_entry})
+            pending_entry = None
+
+        current_equity = equity
+        if position is not None and candle.low <= float(position["stop_price"]):
+            equity, won = close_position(
+                trades=trades,
+                exits=exits,
+                position=position,
+                account_equity=equity,
+                candle=candle,
+                exit_price=float(position["stop_price"]),
+                leverage=leverage,
+            )
+            wins += 1 if won else 0
+            current_equity = equity
+            position = None
+        if position is not None and candle.high >= float(position["take_profit_price"]):
+            equity, won = close_position(
+                trades=trades,
+                exits=exits,
+                position=position,
+                account_equity=equity,
+                candle=candle,
+                exit_price=float(position["take_profit_price"]),
+                leverage=leverage,
+            )
+            wins += 1 if won else 0
+            current_equity = equity
+            position = None
+
+        if position is not None:
+            current_equity = explore.mark_to_market(
+                side="long",
+                margin_used=float(position["margin_used"]),
+                entry_price=float(position["entry_price"]),
+                mark_price=candle.close,
+                leverage=leverage,
+            )
+        peak_equity = max(peak_equity, current_equity)
+        max_drawdown = max(max_drawdown, (peak_equity - current_equity) / peak_equity)
+        equity_curve.append({"ts": candle.ts, "equity": current_equity, "close": candle.close})
+        ending_equity = current_equity
+        if index == len(eth) - 1 or equity <= 0.0:
+            continue
+
+        if position is not None:
+            held_bars = index - int(position["entry_index"])
+            current_rsi = eth_rsi[index]
+            current_ratio_z = ratio_z.iloc[index]
+            current_sma = eth_sma.iloc[index]
+            regime = str(position["regime"])
+            if held_bars >= spec.max_hold_bars:
+                pending_exit = True
+            elif regime == "trend_follow" and current_rsi == current_rsi and current_rsi >= 55.0:
+                pending_exit = True
+            elif regime == "trend_follow" and current_sma == current_sma and candle.close < float(current_sma):
+                pending_exit = True
+            elif regime == "mean_reversion" and current_rsi == current_rsi and current_rsi >= 50.0:
+                pending_exit = True
+            elif regime == "mean_reversion" and current_ratio_z == current_ratio_z and current_ratio_z >= 0.0:
+                pending_exit = True
+            elif regime == "btc_lead" and current_rsi == current_rsi and current_rsi >= 60.0:
+                pending_exit = True
+            continue
+
+        action = regime_action(
+            index=index,
+            eth=eth,
+            btc=btc,
+            eth_close=eth_close,
+            btc_close=btc_close,
+            eth_volume=eth_volume,
+            eth_sma=eth_sma,
+            btc_sma=btc_sma,
+            eth_vol=eth_vol,
+            btc_vol=btc_vol,
+            corr=corr,
+            ratio_z=ratio_z,
+            volume_ratio=volume_ratio,
+            eth_rsi=eth_rsi,
+            spec=spec,
+        )
+        if action != "cash":
+            pending_entry = action
+
+    trade_count = len(trades)
+    return explore.SegmentResult(
+        trade_count=trade_count,
+        total_return=(ending_equity - explore.INITIAL_EQUITY) / explore.INITIAL_EQUITY,
+        win_rate=wins / trade_count if trade_count else 0.0,
+        max_drawdown=max_drawdown,
+        trades=trades,
+        open_position=position,
+        candles=eth[warmup:],
+        equity_curve=equity_curve,
+        entries=entries,
+        exits=exits,
+    )
+
+
+def specs() -> list[RouterSpec]:
+    out: list[RouterSpec] = []
+    for trend_sma, max_eth_vol, min_corr, ratio_z_entry in product(
+        (96, 192),
+        (0.018, 0.024),
+        (0.45, 0.60),
+        (1.0, 1.5),
+    ):
+        eth_trend_min = 0.006
+        lead_return_min = 0.016
+        min_volume_ratio = 0.90
+        out.append(
+            RouterSpec(
+                name=(
+                    f"router-t{trend_sma}-et{eth_trend_min}-v{max_eth_vol}-c{min_corr}"
+                    f"-rz{ratio_z_entry}-br{lead_return_min}-liq{min_volume_ratio}"
+                ),
+                trend_sma=trend_sma,
+                vol_lookback=96,
+                corr_lookback=192,
+                ratio_lookback=192,
+                lead_lookback=16,
+                eth_trend_min=eth_trend_min,
+                btc_trend_min=eth_trend_min * 0.6,
+                max_eth_vol=max_eth_vol,
+                min_corr=min_corr,
+                ratio_z_entry=ratio_z_entry,
+                lead_return_min=lead_return_min,
+                lag_gap_min=0.006,
+                min_volume_ratio=min_volume_ratio,
+                stop_loss_pct=0.010,
+                take_profit_pct=0.022,
+                max_hold_bars=48,
+            )
+        )
+    return out
+
+
+def cost_frame(result: explore.SegmentResult, cost: float) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    rows = [{"ts": pd.to_datetime(result.equity_curve[0]["ts"], unit="ms", utc=True), "equity": explore.INITIAL_EQUITY}]
+    equity = explore.INITIAL_EQUITY
+    for trade in result.trades:
+        equity *= 1.0 + float(trade["return_pct"]) / 100.0 - cost * float(trade.get("cost_weight", 1.0))
+        rows.append({"ts": pd.to_datetime(str(trade["exit_time"]), utc=True), "equity": equity})
+    return pd.DataFrame(rows)
+
+
+def trade_stats(result: explore.SegmentResult, cost: float) -> dict[str, float]:
+    returns = [float(trade["return_pct"]) / 100.0 - cost * float(trade.get("cost_weight", 1.0)) for trade in result.trades]
+    wins = [value for value in returns if value > 0.0]
+    losses = [value for value in returns if value < 0.0]
+    avg_win = sum(wins) / len(wins) if wins else 0.0
+    avg_loss = abs(sum(losses) / len(losses)) if losses else 0.0
+    gross_profit = sum(wins)
+    gross_loss = abs(sum(losses))
+    return {
+        "win_rate": len(wins) / len(returns) if returns else 0.0,
+        "profit_loss_ratio": avg_win / avg_loss if avg_loss else 0.0,
+        "profit_factor": gross_profit / gross_loss if gross_loss else 0.0,
+    }
+
+
+def horizon_rows(name: str, frame: pd.DataFrame, last_ts: int) -> list[dict[str, object]]:
+    rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    end_time = pd.to_datetime(last_ts, unit="ms", utc=True)
+    for label, offset in HORIZONS:
+        if offset is None:
+            horizon = frame[["ts", "equity"]].copy()
+            start_time = pd.Timestamp(horizon["ts"].iloc[0])
+        else:
+            cutoff = end_time - offset
+            before_cutoff = frame[frame["ts"] <= cutoff]
+            if len(before_cutoff):
+                start_equity = float(before_cutoff["equity"].iloc[-1])
+                after_cutoff = frame[frame["ts"] > cutoff]
+                horizon = pd.concat(
+                    [pd.DataFrame([{"ts": cutoff, "equity": start_equity}]), after_cutoff[["ts", "equity"]]],
+                    ignore_index=True,
+                )
+                start_time = cutoff
+            else:
+                horizon = frame[["ts", "equity"]].copy()
+                start_time = pd.Timestamp(horizon["ts"].iloc[0])
+        metrics = explore.annualized_metrics_from_equity(horizon, int(start_time.timestamp() * 1000), last_ts)
+        rows.append(
+            {
+                "name": name,
+                "horizon": label,
+                "horizon_start": start_time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
+                "horizon_end": end_time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
+                **metrics,
+                "risk_return_ratio": metrics["net_total_return"] / metrics["net_max_drawdown"] if metrics["net_max_drawdown"] else 0.0,
+            }
+        )
+    return rows
+
+
+def monthly_rows(name: str, frame: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    series = frame.set_index("ts")["equity"].resample("ME").last().ffill()
+    out = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "name": name,
+            "month": series.index.strftime("%Y-%m"),
+            "start_equity": series.shift(1).fillna(frame["equity"].iloc[0]).to_numpy(),
+            "end_equity": series.to_numpy(),
+        }
+    )
+    out["return"] = out["end_equity"] / out["start_equity"] - 1.0
+    return out
+
+
+def regime_rows(name: str, result: explore.SegmentResult, cost: float) -> list[dict[str, object]]:
+    rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    for regime, group in pd.DataFrame(result.trades).groupby("regime") if result.trades else []:
+        net_returns = group["return_pct"].astype(float) / 100.0 - cost * group.get("cost_weight", 1.0).astype(float)
+        wins = net_returns[net_returns > 0.0]
+        losses = net_returns[net_returns < 0.0]
+        rows.append(
+            {
+                "name": name,
+                "regime": regime,
+                "trades": len(group),
+                "net_return_contribution": float(net_returns.sum()),
+                "win_rate": float(len(wins) / len(group)) if len(group) else 0.0,
+                "profit_factor": float(wins.sum() / abs(losses.sum())) if len(losses) and abs(losses.sum()) > 0.0 else 0.0,
+            }
+        )
+    if not rows:
+        rows.append({"name": name, "regime": "none", "trades": 0, "net_return_contribution": 0.0, "win_rate": 0.0, "profit_factor": 0.0})
+    return rows
+
+
+def markdown_table(frame: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
+    columns = list(frame.columns)
+    rows = [columns, ["---" for _ in columns]]
+    rows.extend(frame.astype(object).where(pd.notna(frame), "").values.tolist())
+    return "\n".join("| " + " | ".join(format_cell(value) for value in row) + " |" for row in rows)
+
+
+def format_cell(value: object) -> str:
+    if isinstance(value, float):
+        return f"{value:.6g}"
+    return str(value).replace("|", "\\|")
+
+
+def markdown_report(command: str, output_files: list[Path], total: pd.DataFrame, horizon: pd.DataFrame, regime: pd.DataFrame, monthly: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
+    primary = total[total["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST].head(10)
+    names = set(primary["name"])
+    horizon_top = horizon[(horizon["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST) & horizon["name"].isin(names)].copy()
+    regime_top = regime[(regime["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST) & regime["name"].isin(names)].copy()
+    worst_months = monthly[(monthly["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST) & monthly["name"].isin(names)].sort_values("return").head(20)
+    best = primary.iloc[0] if len(primary) else pd.Series(dtype=object)
+    decision = "No router variants produced trades."
+    if len(best):
+        decision = (
+            f"Best maker_taker router `{best['name']}`: annualized={best['net_annualized_return']:.4f}, "
+            f"DD={best['net_max_drawdown']:.4f}, Calmar={best['net_calmar']:.4f}, "
+            f"win_rate={best['win_rate']:.4f}, profit_factor={best['profit_factor']:.4f}."
+        )
+    lines = [
+        "# ETH regime router variants",
+        "",
+        f"Run command: `{command}`",
+        "",
+        "Output files:",
+        *[f"- `{path}`" for path in output_files],
+        "",
+        "Router actions: trend_follow, mean_reversion, btc_lead, or cash. Regime inputs: BTC/ETH volatility, trend distance from SMA, rolling correlation, ETH/BTC ratio z-score, UTC hour, and ETH volume ratio.",
+        f"Costs: {', '.join(COSTS)}. Primary sort uses {PRIMARY_COST}, qualified horizons, Calmar, annualized return, and drawdown.",
+        "",
+        f"Decision: {decision}",
+        "",
+        "## Top maker_taker routers",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(
+            primary[
+                [
+                    "name",
+                    "trades",
+                    "net_total_return",
+                    "net_annualized_return",
+                    "net_max_drawdown",
+                    "net_calmar",
+                    "win_rate",
+                    "profit_loss_ratio",
+                    "profit_factor",
+                    "risk_return_ratio",
+                    "min_horizon_total_return",
+                ]
+            ]
+        ),
+        "",
+        "## Horizon checks",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(
+            horizon_top[
+                [
+                    "name",
+                    "horizon",
+                    "net_total_return",
+                    "net_annualized_return",
+                    "net_max_drawdown",
+                    "net_calmar",
+                    "risk_return_ratio",
+                ]
+            ]
+        ),
+        "",
+        "## Regime contribution",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(regime_top[["name", "regime", "trades", "net_return_contribution", "win_rate", "profit_factor"]]),
+        "",
+        "## Worst months among top routers",
+        "",
+        markdown_table(worst_months[["name", "month", "return"]]),
+    ]
+    return "\n".join(lines) + "\n"
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--bar", default=BAR)
+    parser.add_argument("--years", type=float, default=YEARS)
+    parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, default=OUTPUT_DIR)
+    parser.add_argument("--max-candidates", type=int)
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    eth_raw = load_candles(ETH_SYMBOL, args.bar, args.years)
+    btc_raw = load_candles(BTC_SYMBOL, args.bar, args.years)
+    eth, btc = explore.align_pair_candles(eth_raw, btc_raw)
+    if not eth or not btc:
+        raise RuntimeError("no aligned ETH/BTC candles")
+
+    candidates = specs()
+    if args.max_candidates is not None:
+        candidates = candidates[: args.max_candidates]
+
+    total_rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    horizon_output: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    monthly_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
+    regime_output: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+
+    for index, spec in enumerate(candidates, start=1):
+        result = run_router_segment(eth=eth, btc=btc, spec=spec, leverage=explore.LEVERAGE)
+        print(f"done {index}/{len(candidates)} {spec.name} trades={result.trade_count}", flush=True)
+        for cost_model, cost in COSTS.items():
+            frame = cost_frame(result, cost)
+            metric_start_ts = int(pd.Timestamp(frame["ts"].iloc[0]).timestamp() * 1000)
+            metric_end_ts = int(pd.Timestamp(frame["ts"].iloc[-1]).timestamp() * 1000)
+            metrics = explore.annualized_metrics_from_equity(frame, metric_start_ts, metric_end_ts)
+            stats = trade_stats(result, cost)
+            current_horizons = horizon_rows(spec.name, frame, eth[-1].ts)
+            min_horizon_return = min(float(row["net_total_return"]) for row in current_horizons if row["horizon"] != "all")
+            total_rows.append(
+                {
+                    "name": spec.name,
+                    "cost_model": cost_model,
+                    "symbol": ETH_SYMBOL,
+                    "signal_symbol": BTC_SYMBOL,
+                    "bar": args.bar,
+                    "first_candle": pd.Timestamp(frame["ts"].iloc[0]).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
+                    "last_candle": pd.Timestamp(frame["ts"].iloc[-1]).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
+                    "years": (metric_end_ts - metric_start_ts) / 86_400_000 / 365,
+                    "trades": result.trade_count,
+                    "gross_total_return": result.total_return,
+                    "gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market": result.max_drawdown,
+                    "risk_return_ratio": metrics["net_total_return"] / metrics["net_max_drawdown"] if metrics["net_max_drawdown"] else 0.0,
+                    "min_horizon_total_return": min_horizon_return,
+                    **spec.__dict__,
+                    **metrics,
+                    **stats,
+                }
+            )
+            for row in current_horizons:
+                horizon_output.append({"cost_model": cost_model, **row})
+            monthly_frames.append(monthly_rows(spec.name, frame).assign(cost_model=cost_model))
+            for row in regime_rows(spec.name, result, cost):
+                regime_output.append({"cost_model": cost_model, **row})
+
+    total = pd.DataFrame(total_rows).sort_values(
+        ["cost_model", "min_horizon_total_return", "net_calmar", "net_annualized_return", "net_max_drawdown"],
+        ascending=[True, False, False, False, True],
+    )
+    horizon = pd.DataFrame(horizon_output)
+    horizon["horizon"] = pd.Categorical(horizon["horizon"], categories=[label for label, _ in HORIZONS], ordered=True)
+    horizon = horizon.sort_values(["cost_model", "name", "horizon"])
+    monthly = pd.concat(monthly_frames, ignore_index=True)
+    regime = pd.DataFrame(regime_output).sort_values(["cost_model", "name", "net_return_contribution"], ascending=[True, True, False])
+
+    args.output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    total_path = args.output_dir / f"{PREFIX}-total.csv"
+    horizon_path = args.output_dir / f"{PREFIX}-horizon.csv"
+    monthly_path = args.output_dir / f"{PREFIX}-monthly.csv"
+    regime_path = args.output_dir / f"{PREFIX}-regime-contribution.csv"
+    top_path = args.output_dir / f"{PREFIX}-top10.csv"
+    json_path = args.output_dir / f"{PREFIX}-summary.json"
+    report_path = args.output_dir / f"{PREFIX}-report.md"
+    total.to_csv(total_path, index=False)
+    horizon.to_csv(horizon_path, index=False)
+    monthly.to_csv(monthly_path, index=False)
+    regime.to_csv(regime_path, index=False)
+    total[total["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST].head(10).to_csv(top_path, index=False)
+    summary = {
+        "report": PREFIX,
+        "command": f"rtk .venv/bin/python {Path(__file__).as_posix()} --bar {args.bar} --years {args.years}",
+        "primary_cost": PRIMARY_COST,
+        "candidate_count": len(candidates),
+        "top_maker_taker": total[total["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST].head(10).to_dict("records"),
+        "output_files": [str(path) for path in [total_path, horizon_path, monthly_path, regime_path, top_path, json_path, report_path]],
+    }
+    json_path.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")
+    report_path.write_text(
+        markdown_report(
+            command=summary["command"],
+            output_files=[total_path, horizon_path, monthly_path, regime_path, top_path, json_path, report_path],
+            total=total,
+            horizon=horizon,
+            regime=regime,
+            monthly=monthly,
+        ),
+        encoding="utf-8",
+    )
+
+    print(total[total["cost_model"] == PRIMARY_COST].head(20).to_string(index=False))
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())