research: add eth twap evaluation followups

reports/eth-exploration/README.md

@@ -43,3 +43,24 @@ Reports:
 - `reports/eth-exploration/eth-price-twap-top10.csv`
 
 Core conclusion: search methodology needs review. The standalone price-TWAP search ranks maker_taker candidates with negative annualized return and Calmar, while the BTC regime report shows strong recent horizon returns for baseline price-TWAP rows. The price-TWAP comparison/search口径 should be reconciled before promoting any price-TWAP result.
+
+## Second round followups
+
+Scripts:
+- `scripts/compare_eth_twap_evaluation.py`
+- `scripts/search_eth_regime_price_twap_variants.py`
+
+Reports:
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-twap-evaluation-diff.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-twap-evaluation-diff.md`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-summary.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-total.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-horizon.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-top10.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-report.md`
+
+Core conclusion: negative for promotion. The price-TWAP search versus main-report mismatch came from two direct causes: the earlier search grid did not include the main-report ETH deep parameter set, and it evaluated a 3-year search sample while the main report used a 10-year total evaluation with recent horizons cut from that continuous equity curve.
+
+Reporting rule going forward: evaluate selected strategies with the shared runner over the 10-year continuous cached history, then cut 3y/1y/6m/3m horizons from the same run.
+
+BTC regime plus ETH price-TWAP did not exceed the ETH/BTC RSI filter. Its best maker_taker window robustness and full-period Calmar both remained below the standalone baselines, so the ETH/BTC RSI filter remains the stronger candidate.

reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-horizon.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,5221 @@
+family,cost,symbol,signal_symbol,bar,name,trades,eth_trend_sma,eth_rsi_threshold,eth_exit_rsi,stop_loss_pct,entry_offsets,entry_valid_bars,fill_buffer,btc_trend_sma,btc_momentum_lookback,btc_min_momentum,max_hold_bars,horizon,horizon_start,horizon_end,horizon_days,net_total_return,net_annualized_return,net_max_drawdown,net_calmar,net_sharpe_daily
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+regime_price_twap,taker_taker,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-fb0.0002-et160-l5.0-x50.0-sl0.008-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0,214,160,5.0,50.0,0.008,0.0040-0.0070-0.0100,2,0.0002,480,240,0.0,48,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,90.0,-0.14117741708650144,-0.46056168156231103,0.14281443257959428,-3.224895924336133,-3.980064647029289
+regime_price_twap,taker_taker,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et160-l5.0-x50.0-sl0.008-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0,234,160,5.0,50.0,0.008,0.0040-0.0070-0.0100,2,0.0,480,240,0.0,48,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,90.0,-0.1452268766174477,-0.47080300510063433,0.14685617337081158,-3.2058782024222947,-4.047524082415912

reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-report.md

@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+# ETH regime price-TWAP variants
+
+Run command: `rtk .venv/bin/python /home/lxy/okx-codex-trader/scripts/search_eth_regime_price_twap_variants.py --bar 15m --years 3.25 --window-size 240`
+
+Output files:
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-summary.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-total.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-horizon.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-top10.csv`
+- `reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-report.md`
+
+Primary sort: maker_taker cost, by net_ci95_low then net_avg_return.
+
+Tested entry rule: ETH price-TWAP entry requires BTC close above SMA480 and BTC momentum240 >= 0. Exit remains ETH RSI/hold/stop based.
+
+Top 10 maker_taker candidates:
+| family | name | net_avg_return | net_ci95_low | positive_window_rate | trades | avg_trades_per_window | max_drawdown |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.000166594 | -0.000246767 | 0.0783898 | 46 | 0.0974576 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 8.53745e-05 | -0.000263586 | 0.0402542 | 23 | 0.0487288 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 8.31492e-05 | -0.000266281 | 0.0381356 | 23 | 0.0487288 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 8.5168e-05 | -0.00027054 | 0.0529661 | 32 | 0.0677966 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 5.86723e-05 | -0.000277833 | 0.0402542 | 22 | 0.0466102 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 5.6447e-05 | -0.000280544 | 0.0381356 | 22 | 0.0466102 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 7.05863e-05 | -0.000283388 | 0.0529661 | 32 | 0.0677966 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.00011609 | -0.000289141 | 0.0783898 | 46 | 0.0974576 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.000100106 | -0.000295621 | 0.0762712 | 45 | 0.095339 | 0.046063 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 4.477e-05 | -0.000298839 | 0.0508475 | 31 | 0.065678 | 0.046063 |
+
+Top 10 by full-period maker_taker net Calmar:
+| family | name | trades | net_total_return | net_annualized_return | net_max_drawdown | net_calmar |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 97 | 0.098177 | 0.0292353 | 0.0464208 | 0.629789 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 51 | 0.104373 | 0.0310186 | 0.0641015 | 0.483898 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0030-0.0060-0.0090-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 72 | 0.0870321 | 0.02601 | 0.0547258 | 0.475278 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v1-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 67 | 0.0602575 | 0.0181668 | 0.0469383 | 0.387037 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v2-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 82 | 0.0697868 | 0.0209738 | 0.0561502 | 0.373531 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 51 | 0.0769222 | 0.0230644 | 0.0649698 | 0.355001 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 50 | 0.0728862 | 0.0218831 | 0.0641015 | 0.341382 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0030-0.0060-0.0090-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 69 | 0.0642522 | 0.0193457 | 0.0576593 | 0.335517 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 92 | 0.0507572 | 0.0153509 | 0.0464208 | 0.330691 |
+| regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 97 | 0.0593286 | 0.0178923 | 0.0557616 | 0.320871 |
+
+Baselines:
+| family | name | net_avg_return | net_ci95_low | positive_window_rate | trades | avg_trades_per_window | max_drawdown |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| baseline_eth_btc_rsi_filter | eth-btc-rsi-filter-et50-l3.0-x55.0-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.000835727 | 0.000144234 | 0.226695 | 156 | 0.330508 | 0.0576946 |
+| baseline_price_twap_deep | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | -0.143293 | -0.167428 | 0.0232068 | 173 | 0.364979 | 0.924144 |
+| baseline_price_twap_mid | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0010-0.0030-0.0050-v2-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | -0.149641 | -0.174268 | 0.0464135 | 207 | 0.436709 | 0.962183 |
+
+Recent horizons for top 10:
+| name | horizon | horizon_start | horizon_end | net_total_return | net_annualized_return | net_max_drawdown | net_calmar |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.0167915 | 0.00556105 | 0.066946 | 0.0830677 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0191729 | -0.0191729 | 0.0417187 | -0.459576 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0310338 | -0.0612672 | 0.0417187 | -1.46858 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.0193982 | 0.00641883 | 0.071082 | 0.0903018 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0235207 | -0.0235207 | 0.0417187 | -0.563792 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0310338 | -0.0612672 | 0.0417187 | -1.46858 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.00426432 | 0.00141813 | 0.066946 | 0.0211832 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0191729 | -0.0191729 | 0.0417187 | -0.459576 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0310338 | -0.0612672 | 0.0417187 | -1.46858 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.0068389 | 0.00227238 | 0.071082 | 0.0319684 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0235207 | -0.0235207 | 0.0417187 | -0.563792 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0310338 | -0.0612672 | 0.0417187 | -1.46858 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v1-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.02775 | 0.00915732 | 0.0596589 | 0.153495 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0129325 | -0.0129325 | 0.0417187 | -0.309993 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0310338 | -0.0612672 | 0.0417187 | -1.46858 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.0363726 | 0.0119691 | 0.0564678 | 0.211963 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0173079 | -0.0173079 | 0.0417187 | -0.414872 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0310338 | -0.0612672 | 0.0417187 | -1.46858 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.0170039 | 0.00563097 | 0.0601788 | 0.0935707 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0173079 | -0.0173079 | 0.0417187 | -0.414872 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0310338 | -0.0612672 | 0.0417187 | -1.46858 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v2-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.0422765 | 0.0138853 | 0.0649698 | 0.21372 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0261104 | -0.0261104 | 0.0649698 | -0.401886 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0271019 | -0.0536122 | 0.0396584 | -1.35185 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x50.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.001247 | 0.00506692 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.068844 | 0.02242 | 0.0641015 | 0.349757 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0157127 | -0.0157127 | 0.0641015 | -0.245123 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0187569 | -0.0372622 | 0.0381 | -0.978009 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.004426 | 0.0180716 | 0 | 0 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.0383703 | 0.0126183 | 0.0641015 | 0.196849 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0202582 | -0.0202582 | 0.0641015 | -0.316033 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | -0.0187569 | -0.0372622 | 0.0381 | -0.978009 |
+| eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0040-0.0070-0.0100-v3-fb0.0002-et50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.012-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 0.004426 | 0.0180716 | 0 | 0 |
+
+Recent horizon leaders:
+| horizon | family | name | net_total_return | net_annualized_return | net_max_drawdown | net_calmar |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| 3y | baseline_price_twap_deep | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.905872 | 0.239594 | 0.0787583 | 3.04214 |
+| 3y | baseline_price_twap_mid | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0010-0.0030-0.0050-v2-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.592282 | 0.167558 | 0.156469 | 1.07087 |
+| 3y | baseline_eth_btc_rsi_filter | eth-btc-rsi-filter-et50-l3.0-x55.0-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.434228 | 0.127609 | 0.0942497 | 1.35394 |
+| 1y | baseline_price_twap_deep | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.458421 | 0.458421 | 0.0644706 | 7.11054 |
+| 1y | baseline_price_twap_mid | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0010-0.0030-0.0050-v2-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.379413 | 0.379413 | 0.0709442 | 5.34805 |
+| 1y | baseline_eth_btc_rsi_filter | eth-btc-rsi-filter-et50-l3.0-x55.0-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.293336 | 0.293336 | 0.0485901 | 6.03695 |
+| 6m | baseline_price_twap_deep | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.24499 | 0.551868 | 0.0644706 | 8.56001 |
+| 6m | baseline_price_twap_mid | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0010-0.0030-0.0050-v2-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.0859606 | 0.179845 | 0.0709442 | 2.53502 |
+| 6m | regime_price_twap | eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-et80-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.0570191 | 0.11763 | 0.0271791 | 4.32795 |
+| 3m | baseline_price_twap_deep | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.247241 | 1.44981 | 0.009902 | 146.416 |
+| 3m | baseline_price_twap_mid | rsi2-long-guarded-price-twap-o0.0010-0.0030-0.0050-v2-t50-l3.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48 | 0.150327 | 0.764671 | 0.0293094 | 26.0896 |
+| 3m | baseline_eth_btc_rsi_filter | eth-btc-rsi-filter-et50-l3.0-x55.0-bt480-bm240-br0.0 | 0.0612437 | 0.272608 | 0.003843 | 70.9362 |
+
+Comparison:
+- Window robustness better than the best standalone baseline: False.
+- Full-period Calmar better than the best standalone baseline: False.
+- Best regime price-TWAP net_ci95_low=-0.000246767; best baseline net_ci95_low=0.000144234 (baseline_eth_btc_rsi_filter).
+- Best regime price-TWAP net_calmar=0.629789; best baseline net_calmar=2.82306 (baseline_price_twap_deep).

reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-summary.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1306 @@
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reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-top10.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
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reports/eth-exploration/eth-regime-price-twap-total.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1306 @@
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+regime_price_twap,taker_taker,ETH-USDT-SWAP,BTC-USDT-SWAP,15m,eth-btc-price-twap-o0.0020-0.0050-0.0080-v3-fb0.0002-et160-l5.0-x55.0-sl0.008-mh48-bt480-bm240-br0.0,2023-01-29 11:00,2026-04-29 16:45,3.2499714611872146,442,-0.18202495471651,-0.0599508734799884,0.36097124729480046,160,5.0,55.0,0.008,0.0020-0.0050-0.0080,3,0.0002,480,240,0.0,48,-0.6102167561247388,-0.25166108486005445,0.6147295570525702,-0.4093850409059362,-1.9582493142819675

reports/eth-exploration/eth-twap-evaluation-diff.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+evaluation,window,first_candle,last_candle,bars,trades,gross_return,maker_taker_net_return
+main_report_10y_eval,total,2019-12-25 00:00,2026-04-29 16:45,222500,321,5.822857382280592,2.5556545651173335
+main_report_10y_eval,3y,2023-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,,321,,0.9058715586374486
+main_report_10y_eval,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,,321,,0.4584206860364417
+main_report_10y_eval,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,,321,,0.24499042841144347
+main_report_10y_eval,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,,321,,0.24724105099817995
+search_script_3y_eval,total,2023-04-30 17:00,2026-04-29 16:45,105120,170,0.28364213968532725,0.056535065590202827
+search_script_3y_eval,3y,2023-05-01 05:30,2026-04-29 16:45,,170,,0.056535065590202827
+search_script_3y_eval,1y,2025-04-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,,170,,0.10702293739371904
+search_script_3y_eval,6m,2025-10-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,,170,,0.06403669775895882
+search_script_3y_eval,3m,2026-01-29 16:45,2026-04-29 16:45,,170,,0.12473690307480734

reports/eth-exploration/eth-twap-evaluation-diff.md

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+# ETH RSI2 Price TWAP deep evaluation diff
+
+Parameter under test: `trend_sma=50, rsi_threshold=3.0, exit_rsi=55.0, stop_loss_pct=0.008, max_hold_bars=48, entry_offsets=(0.002, 0.005, 0.008), entry_valid_bars=3, fill_buffer=0.0`.
+
+| evaluation | window | first_candle | last_candle | bars | trades | gross_return | maker_taker_net_return |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| main_report_10y_eval | total | 2019-12-25 00:00 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 222500 | 321 | 582.29% | 255.57% |
+| main_report_10y_eval | 3y | 2023-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 321 |  | 90.59% |
+| main_report_10y_eval | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 321 |  | 45.84% |
+| main_report_10y_eval | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 321 |  | 24.50% |
+| main_report_10y_eval | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 321 |  | 24.72% |
+| search_script_3y_eval | total | 2023-04-30 17:00 | 2026-04-29 16:45 | 105120 | 170 | 28.36% | 5.65% |
+| search_script_3y_eval | 3y | 2023-05-01 05:30 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 170 |  | 5.65% |
+| search_script_3y_eval | 1y | 2025-04-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 170 |  | 10.70% |
+| search_script_3y_eval | 6m | 2025-10-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 170 |  | 6.40% |
+| search_script_3y_eval | 3m | 2026-01-29 16:45 | 2026-04-29 16:45 |  | 170 |  | 12.47% |
+
+## Readout
+
+- `main_report_10y_eval` matches `scripts/generate_ultrashort_report.py`: load up to 10 years, run the shared `explore_ultrashort` candidate gross, then apply maker_taker cost with `cost_weight` per closed trade.
+- `search_script_3y_eval` matches `scripts/search_eth_price_twap_variants.py`: load 3 years, run its local price-TWAP segment, and deduct maker_taker cost inside each close.
+- The prior search grid did not include the main-report ETH deep parameter. It searched `trend_sma in {80,160}`, `rsi_threshold in {5,8,10}`, `entry_valid_bars in {2,4}`, and offset sets `(0.001,0.003,0.005)` / `(0.003,0.006,0.009)`, not `trend_sma=50`, `rsi_threshold=3`, deep offsets `(0.002,0.005,0.008)`, `entry_valid_bars=3`.
+- Therefore the sign mismatch is primarily parameter universe plus total-sample scope: the main report's cost table is 10-year total, while the search table was a different 3-year grid sorted by maker_taker `net_calmar` then `net_annualized_return`.
+
+Adopt the main-report evaluation口径 for reporting selected strategies: shared `explore_ultrashort` runner, 10-year cached history for total cost sensitivity, and explicit recent horizons for 3y/1y/6m/3m.

scripts/compare_eth_twap_evaluation.py

@@ -0,0 +1,207 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import importlib.util
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT))
+
+from okx_codex_trader.models import Candle
+from scripts import search_eth_price_twap_variants as search
+from scripts.explore_ultrashort import (
+    CANDLE_CACHE_DIR,
+    INITIAL_EQUITY,
+    LEVERAGE,
+    build_rsi2_long_guarded_price_twap_candidate,
+    cost_adjusted_trade_equity_frame,
+    history_bars_for_years,
+    load_cached_candles,
+    recent_horizon_metrics_from_equity,
+)
+
+SYMBOL = "ETH-USDT-SWAP"
+BAR = "15m"
+MAKER_TAKER_COST = 0.0021
+OUTPUT_DIR = Path("reports/eth-exploration")
+CSV_PATH = OUTPUT_DIR / "eth-twap-evaluation-diff.csv"
+MD_PATH = OUTPUT_DIR / "eth-twap-evaluation-diff.md"
+HORIZONS = (
+    ("3y", pd.DateOffset(years=3)),
+    ("1y", pd.DateOffset(years=1)),
+    ("6m", pd.DateOffset(months=6)),
+    ("3m", pd.DateOffset(months=3)),
+)
+DEEP_SPEC = {
+    "trend_sma": 50,
+    "rsi_threshold": 3.0,
+    "exit_rsi": 55.0,
+    "stop_loss_pct": 0.008,
+    "max_hold_bars": 48,
+    "entry_offsets": (0.002, 0.005, 0.008),
+    "entry_valid_bars": 3,
+    "fill_buffer": 0.0,
+}
+
+
+def load_report_module():
+    path = Path(__file__).resolve().with_name("generate_ultrashort_report.py")
+    spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("generate_ultrashort_report", path)
+    if spec is None or spec.loader is None:
+        raise RuntimeError("cannot load generate_ultrashort_report.py")
+    module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
+    sys.modules[spec.name] = module
+    spec.loader.exec_module(module)
+    return module
+
+
+def cached_history(years: float) -> list[Candle]:
+    candles, _ = load_cached_candles(CANDLE_CACHE_DIR, SYMBOL, BAR)
+    if not candles:
+        raise RuntimeError(f"missing cached candles: {SYMBOL} {BAR}")
+    requested_bars = history_bars_for_years(BAR, years)
+    return candles[-requested_bars:] if len(candles) > requested_bars else candles
+
+
+def equity_frame_from_search_result(result) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    return search.equity_frame(result)
+
+
+def metric_rows(label: str, candles: list[Candle], trade_count: int, gross_equity: pd.DataFrame, net_equity: pd.DataFrame) -> list[dict[str, object]]:
+    gross_return = float(gross_equity["equity"].iloc[-1] / gross_equity["equity"].iloc[0] - 1.0)
+    net_return = float(net_equity["equity"].iloc[-1] / net_equity["equity"].iloc[0] - 1.0)
+    rows: list[dict[str, object]] = [
+        {
+            "evaluation": label,
+            "window": "total",
+            "first_candle": search._format_ts(candles[0].ts),
+            "last_candle": search._format_ts(candles[-1].ts),
+            "bars": len(candles),
+            "trades": trade_count,
+            "gross_return": gross_return,
+            "maker_taker_net_return": net_return,
+        }
+    ]
+    horizons = recent_horizon_metrics_from_equity(net_equity, candles[-1].ts, HORIZONS)
+    for row in horizons.to_dict("records"):
+        rows.append(
+            {
+                "evaluation": label,
+                "window": row["horizon"],
+                "first_candle": row["horizon_start"],
+                "last_candle": row["horizon_end"],
+                "bars": "",
+                "trades": trade_count,
+                "gross_return": "",
+                "maker_taker_net_return": float(row["net_total_return"]),
+            }
+        )
+    return rows
+
+
+def pct(value: object) -> str:
+    if value == "":
+        return ""
+    return f"{float(value) * 100:.2f}%"
+
+
+def markdown_table(frame: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
+    display = frame.copy()
+    display["gross_return"] = display["gross_return"].map(pct)
+    display["maker_taker_net_return"] = display["maker_taker_net_return"].map(pct)
+    columns = [
+        "evaluation",
+        "window",
+        "first_candle",
+        "last_candle",
+        "bars",
+        "trades",
+        "gross_return",
+        "maker_taker_net_return",
+    ]
+    rows = [["" if pd.isna(value) else str(value) for value in row] for row in display[columns].itertuples(index=False, name=None)]
+    return "\n".join(
+        [
+            "| " + " | ".join(columns) + " |",
+            "| " + " | ".join("---" for _ in columns) + " |",
+            *["| " + " | ".join(row) + " |" for row in rows],
+        ]
+    )
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    report = load_report_module()
+
+    report_candles = report.load_cached_history(report.load_explore_module(), SYMBOL, BAR, history_bars_for_years(BAR, 10.0))
+    report_candidate = build_rsi2_long_guarded_price_twap_candidate(
+        int(DEEP_SPEC["trend_sma"]),
+        float(DEEP_SPEC["rsi_threshold"]),
+        float(DEEP_SPEC["exit_rsi"]),
+        float(DEEP_SPEC["stop_loss_pct"]),
+        int(DEEP_SPEC["max_hold_bars"]),
+        tuple(DEEP_SPEC["entry_offsets"]),
+        int(DEEP_SPEC["entry_valid_bars"]),
+        float(DEEP_SPEC["fill_buffer"]),
+    )
+    report_gross = report_candidate.run(
+        candles=report_candles,
+        leverage=LEVERAGE,
+        warmup_bars=report_candidate.warmup_bars,
+    )
+    report_gross_equity = cost_adjusted_trade_equity_frame(report_gross, 0.0)
+    report_net = cost_adjusted_trade_equity_frame(report_gross, MAKER_TAKER_COST)
+
+    search_candles = cached_history(search.YEARS)
+    search_gross = search.run_price_twap_segment(
+        candles=search_candles,
+        spec=DEEP_SPEC,
+        roundtrip_cost_on_margin=0.0,
+    )
+    search_gross_equity = equity_frame_from_search_result(search_gross)
+    search_net_result = search.run_price_twap_segment(
+        candles=search_candles,
+        spec=DEEP_SPEC,
+        roundtrip_cost_on_margin=MAKER_TAKER_COST,
+    )
+    search_net = equity_frame_from_search_result(search_net_result)
+
+    rows = [
+        *metric_rows("main_report_10y_eval", report_candles, report_gross.trade_count, report_gross_equity, report_net),
+        *metric_rows("search_script_3y_eval", search_candles, search_gross.trade_count, search_gross_equity, search_net),
+    ]
+    frame = pd.DataFrame(rows)
+
+    OUTPUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    frame.to_csv(CSV_PATH, index=False)
+    MD_PATH.write_text(
+        "\n".join(
+            [
+                "# ETH RSI2 Price TWAP deep evaluation diff",
+                "",
+                "Parameter under test: `trend_sma=50, rsi_threshold=3.0, exit_rsi=55.0, stop_loss_pct=0.008, max_hold_bars=48, entry_offsets=(0.002, 0.005, 0.008), entry_valid_bars=3, fill_buffer=0.0`.",
+                "",
+                markdown_table(frame),
+                "",
+                "## Readout",
+                "",
+                "- `main_report_10y_eval` matches `scripts/generate_ultrashort_report.py`: load up to 10 years, run the shared `explore_ultrashort` candidate gross, then apply maker_taker cost with `cost_weight` per closed trade.",
+                "- `search_script_3y_eval` matches `scripts/search_eth_price_twap_variants.py`: load 3 years, run its local price-TWAP segment, and deduct maker_taker cost inside each close.",
+                "- The prior search grid did not include the main-report ETH deep parameter. It searched `trend_sma in {80,160}`, `rsi_threshold in {5,8,10}`, `entry_valid_bars in {2,4}`, and offset sets `(0.001,0.003,0.005)` / `(0.003,0.006,0.009)`, not `trend_sma=50`, `rsi_threshold=3`, deep offsets `(0.002,0.005,0.008)`, `entry_valid_bars=3`.",
+                "- Therefore the sign mismatch is primarily parameter universe plus total-sample scope: the main report's cost table is 10-year total, while the search table was a different 3-year grid sorted by maker_taker `net_calmar` then `net_annualized_return`.",
+                "",
+                "Adopt the main-report evaluation口径 for reporting selected strategies: shared `explore_ultrashort` runner, 10-year cached history for total cost sensitivity, and explicit recent horizons for 3y/1y/6m/3m.",
+                "",
+            ]
+        ),
+        encoding="utf-8",
+    )
+    print(CSV_PATH)
+    print(MD_PATH)
+    print(frame.to_string(index=False))
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())

scripts/search_eth_regime_price_twap_variants.py

@@ -0,0 +1,710 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import sys
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from itertools import product
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Iterable
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]))
+
+from scripts import explore_ultrashort as explore
+
+
+ETH_SYMBOL = "ETH-USDT-SWAP"
+BTC_SYMBOL = "BTC-USDT-SWAP"
+PRIMARY_COST = "maker_taker"
+BTC_TREND_SMA = 480
+BTC_MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK = 240
+BTC_MIN_MOMENTUM = 0.0
+MAX_HOLD_BARS = 48
+COST_SCENARIOS = (
+    ("maker_maker", 0.0012),
+    ("maker_taker", 0.0021),
+    ("taker_taker", 0.0030),
+)
+HORIZONS = (
+    ("3y", pd.DateOffset(years=3)),
+    ("1y", pd.DateOffset(years=1)),
+    ("6m", pd.DateOffset(months=6)),
+    ("3m", pd.DateOffset(months=3)),
+)
+ENTRY_OFFSET_SETS = (
+    (0.002, 0.005, 0.008),
+    (0.003, 0.006, 0.009),
+    (0.004, 0.007, 0.010),
+)
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class Strategy:
+    family: str
+    candidate: explore.Candidate | explore.PairCandidate
+    pair: bool
+    spec: dict[str, object]
+
+
+def close_partial_trade(
+    *,
+    trades: list[dict[str, object]],
+    exits: list[dict[str, object]],
+    position: dict[str, object],
+    account_equity: float,
+    candle: explore.Candle,
+    exit_price: float,
+    leverage: int,
+) -> tuple[float, bool]:
+    margin_used = float(position["margin_used"])
+    exit_equity = explore.trade_equity(
+        side="long",
+        margin_used=margin_used,
+        entry_price=float(position["entry_price"]),
+        exit_price=exit_price,
+        leverage=leverage,
+    )
+    pnl = exit_equity - margin_used
+    trades.append(
+        {
+            "side": "Long",
+            "entry_time": explore._format_ts(int(position["entry_time"])),
+            "exit_time": explore._format_ts(candle.ts),
+            "entry_price": round(float(position["entry_price"]), 4),
+            "exit_price": round(exit_price, 4),
+            "pnl": round(pnl, 4),
+            "return_pct": round(pnl / account_equity * 100, 4),
+            "cost_weight": round(margin_used / account_equity, 8),
+        }
+    )
+    exits.append({"ts": candle.ts, "price": exit_price, "side": "long"})
+    return account_equity + pnl, pnl > 0.0
+
+
+def run_eth_btc_price_twap_filter_segment(
+    *,
+    eth_candles: list[explore.Candle],
+    btc_candles: list[explore.Candle],
+    leverage: int,
+    warmup_bars: int,
+    eth_trend_sma: int,
+    eth_rsi_threshold: float,
+    eth_exit_rsi: float,
+    stop_loss_pct: float,
+    max_hold_bars: int,
+    entry_offsets: tuple[float, ...],
+    entry_valid_bars: int,
+    fill_buffer: float,
+    btc_trend_sma: int,
+    btc_momentum_lookback: int,
+    btc_min_momentum: float,
+) -> explore.SegmentResult:
+    eth_closes = pd.Series([candle.close for candle in eth_candles], dtype=float)
+    btc_closes = pd.Series([candle.close for candle in btc_candles], dtype=float)
+    eth_trend = eth_closes.rolling(eth_trend_sma).mean().tolist()
+    eth_rsi = explore._compute_rsi(eth_closes, 2)
+    btc_trend = btc_closes.rolling(btc_trend_sma).mean().tolist()
+
+    equity = explore.INITIAL_EQUITY
+    ending_equity = equity
+    peak_equity = equity
+    max_drawdown = 0.0
+    wins = 0
+    trades: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    entries: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    exits: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    equity_curve: list[dict[str, float | int]] = []
+    position: dict[str, object] | None = None
+    pending_limits: list[dict[str, float | int]] = []
+    pending_exit = False
+
+    for index in range(warmup_bars, len(eth_candles)):
+        candle = eth_candles[index]
+        if pending_exit and position is not None:
+            equity, won = close_partial_trade(
+                trades=trades,
+                exits=exits,
+                position=position,
+                account_equity=equity,
+                candle=candle,
+                exit_price=candle.open,
+                leverage=leverage,
+            )
+            wins += 1 if won else 0
+            position = None
+            pending_exit = False
+            pending_limits = []
+
+        active_limits: list[dict[str, float | int]] = []
+        for limit in pending_limits:
+            if index > int(limit["expires_index"]):
+                continue
+            limit_price = float(limit["price"])
+            if candle.low <= limit_price * (1.0 - fill_buffer) and equity > 0.0:
+                slice_margin = equity / len(entry_offsets)
+                if position is None:
+                    position = {
+                        "side": "long",
+                        "entry_time": candle.ts,
+                        "entry_price": limit_price,
+                        "entry_index": index,
+                        "margin_used": slice_margin,
+                        "stop_price": limit_price * (1.0 - stop_loss_pct),
+                    }
+                else:
+                    old_margin = float(position["margin_used"])
+                    new_margin = old_margin + slice_margin
+                    entry_price = (float(position["entry_price"]) * old_margin + limit_price * slice_margin) / new_margin
+                    position["entry_price"] = entry_price
+                    position["margin_used"] = new_margin
+                    position["stop_price"] = entry_price * (1.0 - stop_loss_pct)
+                entries.append({"ts": candle.ts, "price": limit_price, "side": "long"})
+            else:
+                active_limits.append(limit)
+        pending_limits = active_limits
+
+        current_equity = equity
+        if position is not None and candle.low <= float(position["stop_price"]):
+            equity, won = close_partial_trade(
+                trades=trades,
+                exits=exits,
+                position=position,
+                account_equity=equity,
+                candle=candle,
+                exit_price=float(position["stop_price"]),
+                leverage=leverage,
+            )
+            wins += 1 if won else 0
+            current_equity = equity
+            position = None
+            pending_limits = []
+
+        if position is not None:
+            position_equity = explore.mark_to_market(
+                side="long",
+                margin_used=float(position["margin_used"]),
+                entry_price=float(position["entry_price"]),
+                mark_price=candle.close,
+                leverage=leverage,
+            )
+            current_equity = equity - float(position["margin_used"]) + position_equity
+        peak_equity = max(peak_equity, current_equity)
+        max_drawdown = max(max_drawdown, (peak_equity - current_equity) / peak_equity)
+        equity_curve.append({"ts": candle.ts, "equity": current_equity, "close": candle.close})
+        ending_equity = current_equity
+        if index == len(eth_candles) - 1 or equity <= 0.0:
+            continue
+
+        current_eth_trend = eth_trend[index]
+        current_eth_rsi = eth_rsi[index]
+        current_btc_trend = btc_trend[index]
+        if current_eth_trend != current_eth_trend or current_eth_rsi != current_eth_rsi or current_btc_trend != current_btc_trend:
+            continue
+        if position is not None:
+            held_bars = index - int(position["entry_index"])
+            if current_eth_rsi >= eth_exit_rsi or held_bars >= max_hold_bars:
+                pending_exit = True
+                pending_limits = []
+            continue
+
+        btc_momentum = btc_candles[index].close / btc_candles[index - btc_momentum_lookback].close - 1.0
+        btc_risk_on = btc_candles[index].close > float(current_btc_trend) and btc_momentum >= btc_min_momentum
+        eth_pullback = candle.close > float(current_eth_trend) and current_eth_rsi <= eth_rsi_threshold
+        if not pending_limits and btc_risk_on and eth_pullback:
+            pending_limits = [
+                {
+                    "price": candle.close * (1.0 - offset),
+                    "expires_index": index + entry_valid_bars,
+                }
+                for offset in entry_offsets
+            ]
+
+    trade_count = len(trades)
+    return explore.SegmentResult(
+        trade_count=trade_count,
+        total_return=(ending_equity - explore.INITIAL_EQUITY) / explore.INITIAL_EQUITY,
+        win_rate=wins / trade_count if trade_count else 0.0,
+        max_drawdown=max_drawdown,
+        trades=trades,
+        open_position=position,
+        candles=eth_candles[warmup_bars:],
+        equity_curve=equity_curve,
+        entries=entries,
+        exits=exits,
+    )
+
+
+def build_eth_btc_price_twap_filter_candidate(
+    *,
+    eth_trend_sma: int,
+    eth_rsi_threshold: float,
+    eth_exit_rsi: float,
+    stop_loss_pct: float,
+    entry_offsets: tuple[float, ...],
+    entry_valid_bars: int,
+    fill_buffer: float,
+) -> explore.PairCandidate:
+    offset_label = "-".join(f"{offset:.4f}" for offset in entry_offsets)
+    buffer_label = f"-fb{fill_buffer:.4f}" if fill_buffer else ""
+    return explore.PairCandidate(
+        f"eth-btc-price-twap-o{offset_label}-v{entry_valid_bars}{buffer_label}-et{eth_trend_sma}-l{eth_rsi_threshold}-x{eth_exit_rsi}-sl{stop_loss_pct}-mh{MAX_HOLD_BARS}-bt{BTC_TREND_SMA}-bm{BTC_MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK}-br{BTC_MIN_MOMENTUM}",
+        max(eth_trend_sma, BTC_TREND_SMA, BTC_MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK, 3),
+        lambda eth_candles, btc_candles, leverage, warmup_bars, eth_trend_sma=eth_trend_sma, eth_rsi_threshold=eth_rsi_threshold, eth_exit_rsi=eth_exit_rsi, stop_loss_pct=stop_loss_pct, entry_offsets=entry_offsets, entry_valid_bars=entry_valid_bars, fill_buffer=fill_buffer: run_eth_btc_price_twap_filter_segment(
+            eth_candles=eth_candles,
+            btc_candles=btc_candles,
+            leverage=leverage,
+            warmup_bars=warmup_bars,
+            eth_trend_sma=eth_trend_sma,
+            eth_rsi_threshold=eth_rsi_threshold,
+            eth_exit_rsi=eth_exit_rsi,
+            stop_loss_pct=stop_loss_pct,
+            max_hold_bars=MAX_HOLD_BARS,
+            entry_offsets=entry_offsets,
+            entry_valid_bars=entry_valid_bars,
+            fill_buffer=fill_buffer,
+            btc_trend_sma=BTC_TREND_SMA,
+            btc_momentum_lookback=BTC_MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK,
+            btc_min_momentum=BTC_MIN_MOMENTUM,
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def candidate_specs() -> Iterable[dict[str, object]]:
+    for trend, rsi, exit_rsi, stop, offsets, valid, fill in product(
+        (50, 80, 160),
+        (3.0, 5.0),
+        (50.0, 55.0),
+        (0.008, 0.012),
+        ENTRY_OFFSET_SETS,
+        (1, 2, 3),
+        (0.0, 0.0002),
+    ):
+        yield {
+            "eth_trend_sma": trend,
+            "eth_rsi_threshold": rsi,
+            "eth_exit_rsi": exit_rsi,
+            "stop_loss_pct": stop,
+            "entry_offsets": offsets,
+            "entry_valid_bars": valid,
+            "fill_buffer": fill,
+            "btc_trend_sma": BTC_TREND_SMA,
+            "btc_momentum_lookback": BTC_MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK,
+            "btc_min_momentum": BTC_MIN_MOMENTUM,
+            "max_hold_bars": MAX_HOLD_BARS,
+        }
+
+
+def build_strategies(max_candidates: int | None) -> list[Strategy]:
+    specs = list(candidate_specs())
+    if max_candidates is not None:
+        specs = specs[:max_candidates]
+    strategies = [
+        Strategy(
+            "regime_price_twap",
+            build_eth_btc_price_twap_filter_candidate(
+                eth_trend_sma=int(spec["eth_trend_sma"]),
+                eth_rsi_threshold=float(spec["eth_rsi_threshold"]),
+                eth_exit_rsi=float(spec["eth_exit_rsi"]),
+                stop_loss_pct=float(spec["stop_loss_pct"]),
+                entry_offsets=tuple(float(value) for value in spec["entry_offsets"]),
+                entry_valid_bars=int(spec["entry_valid_bars"]),
+                fill_buffer=float(spec["fill_buffer"]),
+            ),
+            True,
+            spec,
+        )
+        for spec in specs
+    ]
+    baselines = [
+        Strategy(
+            "baseline_price_twap_mid",
+            explore.build_rsi2_long_guarded_price_twap_candidate(50, 3.0, 55.0, 0.008, MAX_HOLD_BARS, (0.001, 0.003, 0.005), 2),
+            False,
+            {
+                "eth_trend_sma": 50,
+                "eth_rsi_threshold": 3.0,
+                "eth_exit_rsi": 55.0,
+                "stop_loss_pct": 0.008,
+                "entry_offsets": "0.0010-0.0030-0.0050",
+                "entry_valid_bars": 2,
+                "fill_buffer": 0.0,
+                "btc_trend_sma": "",
+                "btc_momentum_lookback": "",
+                "btc_min_momentum": "",
+                "max_hold_bars": MAX_HOLD_BARS,
+            },
+        ),
+        Strategy(
+            "baseline_price_twap_deep",
+            explore.build_rsi2_long_guarded_price_twap_candidate(50, 3.0, 55.0, 0.008, MAX_HOLD_BARS, (0.002, 0.005, 0.008), 3),
+            False,
+            {
+                "eth_trend_sma": 50,
+                "eth_rsi_threshold": 3.0,
+                "eth_exit_rsi": 55.0,
+                "stop_loss_pct": 0.008,
+                "entry_offsets": "0.0020-0.0050-0.0080",
+                "entry_valid_bars": 3,
+                "fill_buffer": 0.0,
+                "btc_trend_sma": "",
+                "btc_momentum_lookback": "",
+                "btc_min_momentum": "",
+                "max_hold_bars": MAX_HOLD_BARS,
+            },
+        ),
+        Strategy(
+            "baseline_eth_btc_rsi_filter",
+            explore.build_eth_btc_rsi_filter_candidate(50, 3.0, 55.0, BTC_TREND_SMA, BTC_MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK, BTC_MIN_MOMENTUM),
+            True,
+            {
+                "eth_trend_sma": 50,
+                "eth_rsi_threshold": 3.0,
+                "eth_exit_rsi": 55.0,
+                "stop_loss_pct": "",
+                "entry_offsets": "",
+                "entry_valid_bars": "",
+                "fill_buffer": "",
+                "btc_trend_sma": BTC_TREND_SMA,
+                "btc_momentum_lookback": BTC_MOMENTUM_LOOKBACK,
+                "btc_min_momentum": BTC_MIN_MOMENTUM,
+                "max_hold_bars": "",
+            },
+        ),
+    ]
+    return strategies + baselines
+
+
+def window_rows(strategy: Strategy, eth: list[explore.Candle], btc: list[explore.Candle], window_size: int) -> list[dict[str, object]]:
+    if strategy.pair:
+        return explore.evaluate_pair_candidate_window_rows(
+            candidate=strategy.candidate,
+            eth_candles=eth,
+            btc_candles=btc,
+            window_size=window_size,
+            leverage=explore.LEVERAGE,
+        )
+    return explore.evaluate_candidate_window_rows(
+        candidate=strategy.candidate,
+        candles=eth,
+        window_size=window_size,
+        leverage=explore.LEVERAGE,
+    )
+
+
+def full_result(strategy: Strategy, eth: list[explore.Candle], btc: list[explore.Candle]) -> explore.SegmentResult:
+    if strategy.pair:
+        return strategy.candidate.run(
+            eth_candles=eth,
+            btc_candles=btc,
+            leverage=explore.LEVERAGE,
+            warmup_bars=strategy.candidate.warmup_bars,
+        )
+    return strategy.candidate.run(
+        candles=eth,
+        leverage=explore.LEVERAGE,
+        warmup_bars=strategy.candidate.warmup_bars,
+    )
+
+
+def append_cost_rows(
+    *,
+    strategy: Strategy,
+    bar: str,
+    eth: list[explore.Candle],
+    rows: list[dict[str, object]],
+    result: explore.SegmentResult,
+    summary_rows: list[dict[str, object]],
+    total_rows: list[dict[str, object]],
+    horizon_rows: list[dict[str, object]],
+) -> None:
+    spec = strategy.spec.copy()
+    if isinstance(spec.get("entry_offsets"), tuple):
+        spec["entry_offsets"] = "-".join(f"{value:.4f}" for value in tuple(spec["entry_offsets"]))
+    for cost_name, cost_value in COST_SCENARIOS:
+        summary = explore.add_cost_metrics(
+            pd.DataFrame([explore.summarize_window_rows(rows, strategy.candidate.name)]),
+            cost_value,
+        ).iloc[0].to_dict()
+        summary_rows.append(
+            {
+                "family": strategy.family,
+                "cost": cost_name,
+                "symbol": ETH_SYMBOL,
+                "signal_symbol": BTC_SYMBOL if strategy.pair else "",
+                "bar": bar,
+                "actual_bars": len(eth),
+                "first_candle": explore._format_ts(eth[0].ts),
+                "last_candle": explore._format_ts(eth[-1].ts),
+                **spec,
+                **summary,
+            }
+        )
+
+        net_equity = explore.cost_adjusted_trade_equity_frame(result, cost_value)
+        metrics = explore.annualized_metrics_from_equity(net_equity, eth[0].ts, eth[-1].ts)
+        years_actual = (eth[-1].ts - eth[0].ts) / 86_400_000 / 365
+        gross_annualized = (1.0 + result.total_return) ** (1.0 / years_actual) - 1.0 if result.total_return > -1.0 else 0.0
+        total_rows.append(
+            {
+                "family": strategy.family,
+                "cost": cost_name,
+                "symbol": ETH_SYMBOL,
+                "signal_symbol": BTC_SYMBOL if strategy.pair else "",
+                "bar": bar,
+                "name": strategy.candidate.name,
+                "first_candle": explore._format_ts(eth[0].ts),
+                "last_candle": explore._format_ts(eth[-1].ts),
+                "years": years_actual,
+                "trades": result.trade_count,
+                "gross_total_return": result.total_return,
+                "gross_annualized_return": gross_annualized,
+                "gross_max_drawdown_mark_to_market": result.max_drawdown,
+                **spec,
+                **metrics,
+            }
+        )
+
+        horizon = explore.recent_horizon_metrics_from_equity(net_equity, eth[-1].ts, HORIZONS)
+        for horizon_row in horizon.to_dict("records"):
+            horizon_rows.append(
+                {
+                    "family": strategy.family,
+                    "cost": cost_name,
+                    "symbol": ETH_SYMBOL,
+                    "signal_symbol": BTC_SYMBOL if strategy.pair else "",
+                    "bar": bar,
+                    "name": strategy.candidate.name,
+                    "trades": result.trade_count,
+                    **spec,
+                    **horizon_row,
+                }
+            )
+
+
+def markdown_table(frame: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
+    columns = list(frame.columns)
+    rows = [columns, ["---" for _ in columns]]
+    for record in frame.to_dict("records"):
+        rows.append([record[column] for column in columns])
+    return "\n".join("| " + " | ".join(format_markdown_cell(value) for value in row) + " |" for row in rows)
+
+
+def format_markdown_cell(value: object) -> str:
+    if isinstance(value, float):
+        return f"{value:.6g}"
+    return str(value).replace("|", "\\|")
+
+
+def markdown_report(
+    *,
+    summary: pd.DataFrame,
+    total: pd.DataFrame,
+    horizon: pd.DataFrame,
+    output_files: list[Path],
+    command: str,
+) -> str:
+    primary_summary = summary[summary["cost"] == PRIMARY_COST].copy()
+    primary_total = total[total["cost"] == PRIMARY_COST].copy()
+    top = primary_summary[primary_summary["family"] == "regime_price_twap"].head(10)
+    baseline_summary = primary_summary[primary_summary["family"] != "regime_price_twap"].sort_values(
+        ["net_ci95_low", "net_avg_return"], ascending=False
+    )
+    baseline_total = primary_total[primary_total["family"] != "regime_price_twap"].sort_values(
+        ["net_calmar", "net_annualized_return"], ascending=False
+    )
+    best = top.iloc[0] if len(top) else pd.Series(dtype=object)
+    baseline_best_summary = baseline_summary.iloc[0] if len(baseline_summary) else pd.Series(dtype=object)
+    baseline_best_total = baseline_total.iloc[0] if len(baseline_total) else pd.Series(dtype=object)
+    total_top = primary_total[primary_total["family"] == "regime_price_twap"].sort_values(
+        ["net_calmar", "net_annualized_return"], ascending=False
+    ).head(10)
+    top_names = set(top["name"])
+    horizon_top = horizon[
+        (horizon["cost"] == PRIMARY_COST)
+        & (horizon["name"].isin(top_names))
+    ].sort_values(["name", "horizon"])
+    horizon_leaders = (
+        horizon[horizon["cost"] == PRIMARY_COST]
+        .sort_values(["horizon", "net_annualized_return"], ascending=[True, False])
+        .groupby("horizon", observed=True)
+        .head(3)
+    )
+
+    better_window = bool(len(top) and len(baseline_summary) and float(best["net_ci95_low"]) > float(baseline_best_summary["net_ci95_low"]))
+    better_total = bool(len(total_top) and len(baseline_total) and float(total_top.iloc[0]["net_calmar"]) > float(baseline_best_total["net_calmar"]))
+
+    lines = [
+        "# ETH regime price-TWAP variants",
+        "",
+        f"Run command: `{command}`",
+        "",
+        "Output files:",
+        *[f"- `{path}`" for path in output_files],
+        "",
+        "Primary sort: maker_taker cost, by net_ci95_low then net_avg_return.",
+        "",
+        "Tested entry rule: ETH price-TWAP entry requires BTC close above SMA480 and BTC momentum240 >= 0. Exit remains ETH RSI/hold/stop based.",
+        "",
+        "Top 10 maker_taker candidates:",
+        markdown_table(top[
+            [
+                "family",
+                "name",
+                "net_avg_return",
+                "net_ci95_low",
+                "positive_window_rate",
+                "trades",
+                "avg_trades_per_window",
+                "max_drawdown",
+            ]
+        ]),
+        "",
+        "Top 10 by full-period maker_taker net Calmar:",
+        markdown_table(total_top[
+            [
+                "family",
+                "name",
+                "trades",
+                "net_total_return",
+                "net_annualized_return",
+                "net_max_drawdown",
+                "net_calmar",
+            ]
+        ]),
+        "",
+        "Baselines:",
+        markdown_table(baseline_summary[
+            [
+                "family",
+                "name",
+                "net_avg_return",
+                "net_ci95_low",
+                "positive_window_rate",
+                "trades",
+                "avg_trades_per_window",
+                "max_drawdown",
+            ]
+        ]),
+        "",
+        "Recent horizons for top 10:",
+        markdown_table(horizon_top[
+            [
+                "name",
+                "horizon",
+                "horizon_start",
+                "horizon_end",
+                "net_total_return",
+                "net_annualized_return",
+                "net_max_drawdown",
+                "net_calmar",
+            ]
+        ]),
+        "",
+        "Recent horizon leaders:",
+        markdown_table(horizon_leaders[
+            [
+                "horizon",
+                "family",
+                "name",
+                "net_total_return",
+                "net_annualized_return",
+                "net_max_drawdown",
+                "net_calmar",
+            ]
+        ]),
+        "",
+        "Comparison:",
+        f"- Window robustness better than the best standalone baseline: {better_window}.",
+        f"- Full-period Calmar better than the best standalone baseline: {better_total}.",
+    ]
+    if len(top) and len(baseline_summary):
+        lines.append(
+            f"- Best regime price-TWAP net_ci95_low={float(best['net_ci95_low']):.6g}; best baseline net_ci95_low={float(baseline_best_summary['net_ci95_low']):.6g} ({baseline_best_summary['family']})."
+        )
+    if len(total_top) and len(baseline_total):
+        lines.append(
+            f"- Best regime price-TWAP net_calmar={float(total_top.iloc[0]['net_calmar']):.6g}; best baseline net_calmar={float(baseline_best_total['net_calmar']):.6g} ({baseline_best_total['family']})."
+        )
+    return "\n".join(lines) + "\n"
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--bar", default="15m")
+    parser.add_argument("--years", type=float, default=3.25)
+    parser.add_argument("--window-size", type=int, default=explore.WINDOW_SIZE)
+    parser.add_argument("--max-candidates", type=int, default=None)
+    parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, default=Path("reports/eth-exploration"))
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    requested_bars = explore.history_bars_for_years(args.bar, args.years)
+    client = explore.OkxClient()
+    eth = explore.get_candles_cached(client, ETH_SYMBOL, args.bar, requested_bars)
+    btc = explore.get_candles_cached(client, BTC_SYMBOL, args.bar, requested_bars)
+    eth, btc = explore.align_pair_candles(eth, btc)
+
+    strategies = build_strategies(args.max_candidates)
+    summary_rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    total_rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    horizon_rows: list[dict[str, object]] = []
+    for index, strategy in enumerate(strategies, start=1):
+        rows = window_rows(strategy, eth, btc, args.window_size)
+        result = full_result(strategy, eth, btc)
+        append_cost_rows(
+            strategy=strategy,
+            bar=args.bar,
+            eth=eth,
+            rows=rows,
+            result=result,
+            summary_rows=summary_rows,
+            total_rows=total_rows,
+            horizon_rows=horizon_rows,
+        )
+        print(f"done {index}/{len(strategies)} {strategy.family} {strategy.candidate.name}")
+
+    summary = pd.DataFrame(summary_rows).sort_values(
+        ["cost", "net_ci95_low", "net_avg_return"],
+        ascending=[True, False, False],
+    )
+    primary = summary[summary["cost"] == PRIMARY_COST]
+    others = summary[summary["cost"] != PRIMARY_COST]
+    summary = pd.concat([primary, others], ignore_index=True)
+    total = pd.DataFrame(total_rows).sort_values(
+        ["cost", "net_calmar", "net_annualized_return"],
+        ascending=[True, False, False],
+    )
+    horizon = pd.DataFrame(horizon_rows)
+    horizon["horizon"] = pd.Categorical(horizon["horizon"], categories=["3y", "1y", "6m", "3m"], ordered=True)
+    horizon = horizon.sort_values(["cost", "horizon", "net_annualized_return"], ascending=[True, True, False])
+
+    args.output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    summary_path = args.output_dir / "eth-regime-price-twap-summary.csv"
+    total_path = args.output_dir / "eth-regime-price-twap-total.csv"
+    horizon_path = args.output_dir / "eth-regime-price-twap-horizon.csv"
+    top10_path = args.output_dir / "eth-regime-price-twap-top10.csv"
+    report_path = args.output_dir / "eth-regime-price-twap-report.md"
+    output_files = [summary_path, total_path, horizon_path, top10_path, report_path]
+
+    summary.to_csv(summary_path, index=False)
+    total.to_csv(total_path, index=False)
+    horizon.to_csv(horizon_path, index=False)
+    summary[(summary["cost"] == PRIMARY_COST) & (summary["family"] == "regime_price_twap")].head(10).to_csv(top10_path, index=False)
+    command = f"rtk .venv/bin/python {Path(__file__).as_posix()} --bar {args.bar} --years {args.years} --window-size {args.window_size}"
+    report_path.write_text(
+        markdown_report(
+            summary=summary,
+            total=total,
+            horizon=horizon,
+            output_files=output_files,
+            command=command,
+        ),
+        encoding="utf-8",
+    )
+
+    print(summary[(summary["cost"] == PRIMARY_COST) & (summary["family"] == "regime_price_twap")].head(10).to_string(index=False))
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    raise SystemExit(main())