eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-report.md 17 KB

ETH nextgen + microstructure portfolio exploration

Run command: rtk .venv/bin/python /home/lxy/okx-codex-trader/scripts/search_eth_nextgen_micro_portfolio.py

No order placement or exchange API path is used; this script reads local candle/report data only.

Output files:

  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-summary.csv
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-horizons.csv
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-monthly.csv
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-monthly-stability.csv
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-worst-months.csv
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-robust-survivors.csv
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-equity.csv
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-top.json
  • reports/eth-exploration/eth-nextgen-micro-portfolio-report.md

Base nextgen: equal-2-c0003 with the two documented maker_taker legs. Micro candidates: ATR compression/expansion US-session robust candidates only. Costs: maker_taker=0.0021 and taker_taker=0.0030 roundtrip on margin. Funding and slippage remain excluded.

Conclusion

The best combination improves risk-adjusted return versus nextgen equal-2-c0003. Strict robust survivors with positive full/3y/1y/6m/3m net return and Calmar: 142.

Top maker_taker combinations

name cost_model kind micro_name net_total_return net_annualized_return net_max_drawdown net_calmar risk_reward_ratio worst_month worst_month_return min_recent_total_return trades win_rate payoff_ratio profit_factor
switch-l30-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 1.67172 0.167827 0.0802541 2.09119 1.80325 2025-01 -0.061234 0.0533277 482 0.686722 1.01873 2.23312
switch-l30-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.771 0.174573 0.0874887 1.99538 1.76604 2025-01 -0.0686182 0.0491768 482 0.686722 0.981399 2.15128
switch-l60-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r48-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 1.77118 0.174585 0.0924603 1.88822 1.81511 2024-02 -0.0383721 0.0220114 553 0.641953 1.07503 1.92745
switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 1.44092 0.151288 0.0804413 1.88072 1.74465 2022-01 -0.0577181 0.00381865 483 0.677019 1.00717 2.11118
switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.55467 0.159596 0.0871187 1.83193 1.68241 2022-01 -0.056094 0.00989529 483 0.677019 0.964776 2.02232
switch-l60-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r48-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.96711 0.187321 0.104985 1.78427 1.73718 2024-02 -0.0441242 0.0392597 553 0.641953 1.0044 1.80082
switch-l120-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.85147 0.179893 0.102913 1.74802 1.80346 2022-01 -0.0644513 -0.0443441 489 0.680982 1.01068 2.15741
blend-ng0.70-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker equity_blend atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.00386 0.11598 0.0670848 1.72885 1.55294 2021-03 -0.0379907 0.0218909 874 0.569794 1.18613 1.57099
blend-ng0.75-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker equity_blend atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.08352 0.122869 0.0716259 1.71543 1.58857 2022-01 -0.0413999 0.0227125 874 0.569794 1.23373 1.63404
blend-ng0.70-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker equity_blend atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 0.973963 0.113335 0.0671521 1.68773 1.60811 2022-01 -0.039803 0.0208283 874 0.569794 1.27393 1.68728
blend-ng0.80-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker equity_blend atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.16578 0.129754 0.0770043 1.68502 1.61232 2022-01 -0.0460193 0.0235112 874 0.569794 1.28622 1.70356
riskoff-overlay-l120-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker riskoff_overlay atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.72057 0.171172 0.102913 1.66327 1.7284 2022-01 -0.0644513 0.0227026 581 0.678141 0.977565 2.05968

Taker/taker stress combinations

name cost_model kind micro_name net_total_return net_annualized_return net_max_drawdown net_calmar risk_reward_ratio worst_month worst_month_return min_recent_total_return trades
switch-l30-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 1.26749 0.13797 0.084035 1.64181 1.59298 2025-01 -0.0633904 0.0394823 477
switch-l30-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.30526 0.140941 0.0914895 1.54052 1.52263 2025-01 -0.071013 0.0352438 477
switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 1.16203 0.129445 0.085047 1.52204 1.53263 2022-01 -0.0596789 -0.0186827 492
switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.2941 0.140068 0.0929207 1.50739 1.4978 2022-01 -0.0586931 -0.0120874 492
switch-l120-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.24119 0.135875 0.106227 1.2791 1.36482 2022-01 -0.0670336 -0.0626744 496
switch-l120-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r48-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.18324 0.131187 0.108469 1.20944 1.2497 2022-01 -0.0670336 0.0143063 540
riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker riskoff_overlay atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.13152 0.126914 0.106227 1.19474 1.32117 2022-01 -0.0660408 0.0158067 598
blend-ng0.75-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker equity_blend atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 0.694414 0.0868153 0.0737547 1.17708 1.16602 2022-01 -0.0443186 0.00710307 874
switch-l120-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker recent_regime_switch atr-compress-expand-r48-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 1.09034 0.123449 0.106227 1.16212 1.31428 2022-01 -0.0670336 -0.0106515 534
riskoff-overlay-l120-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker riskoff_overlay atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.08416 0.122923 0.106227 1.15717 1.29077 2022-01 -0.0670336 0.0023315 597
riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker riskoff_overlay atr-compress-expand-r48-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.4-us 1.11261 0.12533 0.108324 1.15699 1.29101 2022-01 -0.0762643 0.0227075 652
blend-ng0.70-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker equity_blend atr-compress-expand-r96-q0.15-sl0.008-tp0.016-mf0.25-us 0.636719 0.0808876 0.0700528 1.15467 1.18935 2022-01 -0.0423554 0.00663218 874

Strict robust survivors

name cost_model net_total_return net_calmar ret_3y ret_1y ret_6m ret_3m calmar_3y calmar_1y calmar_6m calmar_3m
switch-l30-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 1.67172 2.09119 0.512826 0.291521 0.0533277 0.0606172 1.84194 6.23993 2.35058 70.1442
switch-l30-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.771 1.99538 0.554207 0.286431 0.0491768 0.0606172 1.80806 6.13099 2.16321 70.1442
switch-l60-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 1.77118 1.88822 0.446638 0.253123 0.0220114 0.067871 1.41519 4.34545 0.889086 38.3477
switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 1.44092 1.88072 0.444991 0.230816 0.00381865 0.0420235 2.19108 4.51477 0.15577 13.9681
switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.55467 1.83193 0.478749 0.238267 0.00989529 0.0500143 1.85259 4.52587 0.392731 10.5374
switch-l60-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.96711 1.78427 0.52724 0.274272 0.0392597 0.091974 1.44263 4.28386 1.53548 33.7035
blend-ng0.70-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.00386 1.72885 0.289349 0.197818 0.0218909 0.0447982 1.97278 5.06585 1.14871 21.7156
blend-ng0.75-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.08352 1.71543 0.305384 0.207858 0.0227125 0.0474419 1.94284 4.9462 1.11314 28.0615
blend-ng0.70-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 0.973963 1.68773 0.278391 0.189607 0.0208283 0.0438388 1.82683 4.82006 1.09238 34.8751
blend-ng0.80-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.16578 1.68502 0.32147 0.217935 0.0235112 0.0500828 1.80435 4.84272 1.081 37.916
riskoff-overlay-l120-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.72057 1.66327 0.431868 0.253971 0.0227026 0.058524 1.93712 4.45875 0.835671 62.1248
blend-ng0.75-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 1.05717 1.64839 0.296022 0.200927 0.02181 0.0466312 1.70188 4.75346 1.06843 45.0284
riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.72515 1.64121 0.471599 0.281919 0.0454963 0.0866412 1.66075 4.59987 1.68169 95.9564
switch-l90-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 1.38252 1.64107 0.506314 0.270433 0.0361292 0.0716299 2.75143 5.56561 1.57909 16.654
riskoff-overlay-l120-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.68046 1.63662 0.472855 0.284922 0.0479458 0.0821034 2.00756 5.16694 1.84805 90.3119
blend-ng0.85-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.25069 1.63586 0.337602 0.228048 0.0242869 0.0527209 1.63373 4.75241 1.05168 47.9893
switch-l120-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.75898 1.62998 0.574828 0.242292 0.0131784 0.0472996 3.07339 4.98646 0.569457 7.86527
blend-ng0.85-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.21684 1.62479 0.334067 0.245257 0.0330769 0.0600773 1.6716 5.13629 1.41234 46.4245
riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 1.655 1.61953 0.423004 0.267244 0.0335279 0.0697285 1.53776 4.69178 1.24078 37.7199
nonoverlap-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 1.53327 1.61908 0.408538 0.281521 0.0289051 0.0628192 1.57787 4.99913 1.06726 38.8038

Best horizon metrics

horizon horizon_start horizon_end net_total_return net_annualized_return net_max_drawdown net_calmar trades win_rate payoff_ratio profit_factor risk_reward_ratio worst_month worst_month_return
full 2019-12-30 2026-04-29 1.67172 0.167827 0.0802541 2.09119 482 0.686722 1.01873 2.23312 1.80325 2025-01 -0.061234
3y 2023-04-29 2026-04-29 0.512826 0.147823 0.0802541 1.84194 254 0.681102 1.00487 2.1462 1.75466 2025-01 -0.061234
1y 2025-04-29 2026-04-29 0.291521 0.291521 0.0467186 6.23993 104 0.778846 0.874647 3.08028 2.79173 2025-12 -0.031875
6m 2025-10-29 2026-04-29 0.0533277 0.109816 0.0467186 2.35058 38 0.710526 0.682086 1.67421 1.19034 2025-12 -0.031875
3m 2026-01-29 2026-04-29 0.0606172 0.269564 0.003843 70.1442 21 0.809524 0.904063 3.84227 3.26365 2026-01 0.01086

Baseline horizon metrics

horizon horizon_start horizon_end net_total_return net_annualized_return net_max_drawdown net_calmar trades win_rate payoff_ratio profit_factor risk_reward_ratio worst_month worst_month_return
full 2019-12-30 2026-04-29 1.52194 0.157238 0.102913 1.52788 531 0.693032 0.917455 2.07131 1.62475 2022-01 -0.0644513
3y 2023-04-29 2026-04-29 0.386245 0.114903 0.0875276 1.31276 287 0.662021 0.895221 1.75353 1.29789 2024-04 -0.0556154
1y 2025-04-29 2026-04-29 0.258596 0.258596 0.05696 4.53996 114 0.719298 0.955713 2.44901 2.40816 2025-12 -0.031875
6m 2025-10-29 2026-04-29 0.0264751 0.0538025 0.055105 0.976363 48 0.583333 0.87322 1.22251 0.577043 2025-12 -0.031875
3m 2026-01-29 2026-04-29 0.0606172 0.269564 0.003843 70.1442 21 0.809524 0.904063 3.84227 3.26365 2026-01 0.0019671

Monthly stability

cost_model name months positive_month_rate avg_month_return median_month_return worst_month_return best_month_return
maker_taker switch-l60-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0137391 0.00996726 -0.0383721 0.112458
maker_taker blend-ng0.75-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.00968636 0.00832198 -0.0439155 0.0861843
maker_taker blend-ng0.85-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0107152 0.00904709 -0.0551053 0.100664
maker_taker switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0126233 0.00990529 -0.056094 0.102728
maker_taker switch-l90-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0120015 0.00990529 -0.0577181 0.102728
maker_taker blend-ng0.90-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0113303 0.00968028 -0.0582146 0.107498
maker_taker blend-ng0.90-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0113559 0.00956097 -0.0584019 0.106734
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0132016 0.00996726 -0.0627997 0.110734
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.25-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0129636 0.00990529 -0.0634005 0.11468
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0129625 0.00990529 -0.0634058 0.11468
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0128774 0.00990529 -0.0636419 0.110734
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0127249 0.00990529 -0.0639109 0.11468
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.25-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0127597 0.00990529 -0.0639235 0.11468
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.25-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0126643 0.00996726 -0.064105 0.117144
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l120-m0.25-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0131718 0.00996726 -0.0644513 0.121246
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l120-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0131707 0.00996726 -0.0644513 0.121246
maker_taker riskoff-overlay-l120-m0.40-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0135354 0.0101741 -0.0644513 0.121246
maker_taker switch-l120-r96_q0.15_mf0.4_us 77 0.74026 0.0140889 0.00990529 -0.0644513 0.102728
maker_taker switch-l120-r96_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0131681 0.00990529 -0.0644513 0.102728
maker_taker nonoverlap-m0.25-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us 77 0.74026 0.0121713 0.00991616 -0.0700842 0.121714

Worst months

name cost_model month return
nonoverlap-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0827378
switch-l90-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0789155
nonoverlap-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 2022-01 -0.0788724
nonoverlap-m0.25-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0768573
nonoverlap-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0768506
riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0762643
switch-l90-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 2022-01 -0.0756999
switch-l30-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 2022-01 -0.0756999
riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0740928
nonoverlap-m0.25-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 2022-01 -0.0734686
nonoverlap-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us maker_taker 2022-01 -0.0734615
nonoverlap-m0.25-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0731725
riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.25-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0727881
riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0727744
switch-l90-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0723304
riskoff-overlay-l60-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us maker_taker 2022-01 -0.0722408
switch-l30-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0718738
riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0714338
riskoff-overlay-l90-m0.25-r48_q0.15_mf0.4_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0714295
riskoff-overlay-l30-m0.40-r48_q0.15_mf0.25_us taker_taker 2022-01 -0.0712244