eth-twap-evaluation-diff.md 2.4 KB

ETH RSI2 Price TWAP deep evaluation diff

Parameter under test: trend_sma=50, rsi_threshold=3.0, exit_rsi=55.0, stop_loss_pct=0.008, max_hold_bars=48, entry_offsets=(0.002, 0.005, 0.008), entry_valid_bars=3, fill_buffer=0.0.

evaluation window first_candle last_candle bars trades gross_return maker_taker_net_return
main_report_10y_eval total 2019-12-25 00:00 2026-04-29 16:45 222500 321 582.29% 255.57%
main_report_10y_eval 3y 2023-04-29 16:45 2026-04-29 16:45 321 90.59%
main_report_10y_eval 1y 2025-04-29 16:45 2026-04-29 16:45 321 45.84%
main_report_10y_eval 6m 2025-10-29 16:45 2026-04-29 16:45 321 24.50%
main_report_10y_eval 3m 2026-01-29 16:45 2026-04-29 16:45 321 24.72%
search_script_3y_eval total 2023-04-30 17:00 2026-04-29 16:45 105120 170 28.36% 5.65%
search_script_3y_eval 3y 2023-05-01 05:30 2026-04-29 16:45 170 5.65%
search_script_3y_eval 1y 2025-04-29 16:45 2026-04-29 16:45 170 10.70%
search_script_3y_eval 6m 2025-10-29 16:45 2026-04-29 16:45 170 6.40%
search_script_3y_eval 3m 2026-01-29 16:45 2026-04-29 16:45 170 12.47%

Readout

  • main_report_10y_eval matches scripts/generate_ultrashort_report.py: load up to 10 years, run the shared explore_ultrashort candidate gross, then apply maker_taker cost with cost_weight per closed trade.
  • search_script_3y_eval matches scripts/search_eth_price_twap_variants.py: load 3 years, run its local price-TWAP segment, and deduct maker_taker cost inside each close.
  • The prior search grid did not include the main-report ETH deep parameter. It searched trend_sma in {80,160}, rsi_threshold in {5,8,10}, entry_valid_bars in {2,4}, and offset sets (0.001,0.003,0.005) / (0.003,0.006,0.009), not trend_sma=50, rsi_threshold=3, deep offsets (0.002,0.005,0.008), entry_valid_bars=3.
  • Therefore the sign mismatch is primarily parameter universe plus total-sample scope: the main report's cost table is 10-year total, while the search table was a different 3-year grid sorted by maker_taker net_calmar then net_annualized_return.

Adopt the main-report evaluation口径 for reporting selected strategies: shared explore_ultrashort runner, 10-year cached history for total cost sensitivity, and explicit recent horizons for 3y/1y/6m/3m.