swing-report.md 34 KB

Short-Bias Swing Search

Run command: rtk .venv/bin/python /home/lxy/okx-codex-trader/scripts/search_short_bias_swing.py --years 10.0

Output files:

  • reports/short-bias/swing-totals.csv
  • reports/short-bias/swing-monthly-returns.csv
  • reports/short-bias/swing-yearly-distribution.csv
  • reports/short-bias/swing-trades.csv
  • reports/short-bias/swing-qualified.csv
  • reports/short-bias/swing-summary.json
  • reports/short-bias/swing-report.md

Scope: BTC-USDT-SWAP and ETH-USDT-SWAP, resampled from local 15m cache to 1H/4H/1D. SOL was not included because no local SOL cache exists. Cost: 0.04% single-side taker fee; closed trades subtract 0.08% roundtrip. Candidate families: Donchian breakdown, EMA death cross, moving-average rebound short, BTC risk-off short ETH, and volatility-expansion breakdown.

Conclusion: Usable short-biased candidates found: 12 meet positive total return, positive 3y/1y/6m/3m returns, Calmar >= 0.5, profit_factor >= 1.1, and at least 20 trades.

Top candidates

name symbol bar family total_return annualized_return max_drawdown calmar trades win_rate payoff_ratio profit_factor short_trade_ratio return_3y return_1y return_6m return_3m
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2.85265 0.237528 0.249251 0.952967 75 0.466667 2.41505 2.11317 1 0.201816 0.130983 0.174978 0.0809061
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 4.49924 0.310484 0.332678 0.933287 88 0.431818 2.57728 1.95873 1 0.498993 0.327595 0.43043 0.33802
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 3.10854 0.250167 0.293161 0.853343 70 0.514286 2.08828 2.21112 1 0.214339 0.211208 0.187927 0.0809061
btc_riskoff_eth-eth-1D-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr2.0-take_atr4.0-max_hold80-btc_fast20-btc_slow80-btc_lookback3-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.015-eth_max_return0.01 ETH-USDT-SWAP 1D btc_riskoff_eth 4.80878 0.332173 0.401078 0.828199 105 0.409524 2.91718 2.02321 1 1.18124 0.749234 0.876392 0.148435
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 3.50249 0.269565 0.337105 0.799647 84 0.428571 2.4741 1.85557 1 0.496896 0.22543 0.401282 0.33802
donchian_breakdown-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry55-exit20-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr5.0-max_hold120 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H donchian_breakdown 2.9539 0.242845 0.311855 0.778711 123 0.430894 2.13375 1.61556 1 0.293402 0.0895186 0.0801566 0.0135063
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast50-slow200-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 3.15 0.253746 0.329939 0.769071 61 0.52459 2.22753 2.45796 1 0.144107 0.193488 0.170548 0.0809061
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast50-slow200-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2.5195 0.222303 0.304849 0.729224 73 0.438356 2.33472 1.82222 1 0.420608 0.278684 0.351903 0.33802
btc_riskoff_eth-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr2.0-take_atr4.0-max_hold120-btc_fast20-btc_slow80-btc_lookback12-eth_lookback3-btc_drop0.04-eth_max_return0.01 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H btc_riskoff_eth 5.01708 0.328178 0.474515 0.691608 263 0.365019 2.54368 1.46223 1 0.367549 0.0549427 0.184356 0.0618872
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr2.0-take_atr4.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2.27971 0.207328 0.341586 0.606957 95 0.4 2.41163 1.60775 1 0.138402 0.154898 0.188869 0.0973987

Monthly returns for top 3

name symbol bar family month start_equity end_equity return
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-11 28190 33561.2 0.190535
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-12 33561.2 34086.7 0.0156593
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-01 34086.7 34086.7 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-02 34086.7 34590.4 0.0147776
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-03 34590.4 32584.6 -0.0579889
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-04 32584.6 33833.6 0.0383306
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-05 33833.6 33511.9 -0.00950826
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-06 33511.9 32906.3 -0.0180704
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-07 32906.3 32801.7 -0.00317844
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-08 32801.7 33514.1 0.0217181
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-09 33514.1 33514.1 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-10 33514.1 33514.1 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-11 33514.1 33514.1 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-12 33514.1 33514.1 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-01 33514.1 34088.3 0.0171323
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-02 34088.3 34088.3 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-03 34088.3 32789.7 -0.0380942
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-04 32789.7 33930.8 0.0347993
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-05 33930.8 33930.8 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-06 33930.8 33575.1 -0.0104821
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-07 33575.1 34527.9 0.0283781
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-08 34527.9 35377 0.0245917
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-09 35377 35581 0.0057657
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-10 35581 34664.9 -0.0257447
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-11 34664.9 34664.9 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-12 34664.9 35370.8 0.020363
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-01 35370.8 35370.8 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-02 35370.8 38940.4 0.100918
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-03 38940.4 35798 -0.080696
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-04 35798 33921 -0.0524334
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-05 33921 33921 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-06 33921 32436.2 -0.0437739
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-07 32436.2 32436.2 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-08 32436.2 31374.7 -0.0327255
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-09 31374.7 31276.6 -0.00312703
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-10 31276.6 34895.2 0.115699
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-11 34895.2 36559.1 0.0476827
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-12 36559.1 35083.9 -0.0403507
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-01 35083.9 35456.9 0.0106306
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-02 35456.9 41085.4 0.158742
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-03 41085.4 41085.4 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-04 41085.4 41085.4 0
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-05 41085.4 41085.4 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-01 10000 10000 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-02 10000 9859.4 -0.0140605
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-03 9859.4 15100.5 0.531589
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-04 15100.5 15100.5 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-05 15100.5 14714.8 -0.0255431
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-06 14714.8 14714.8 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-07 14714.8 14714.8 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-08 14714.8 14714.8 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-09 14714.8 16835.6 0.144124
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-10 16835.6 16644.1 -0.0113749
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-11 16644.1 16329.9 -0.0188788
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020-12 16329.9 15600.7 -0.0446511
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-01 15600.7 12078.6 -0.225769
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-02 12078.6 15281 0.265134
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-03 15281 13708.2 -0.102925
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-04 13708.2 12704 -0.0732581
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-05 12704 15940 0.25473
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-06 15940 16131.1 0.0119881
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-07 16131.1 16131.1 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-08 16131.1 16131.1 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-09 16131.1 14528.9 -0.0993279
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-10 14528.9 14528.9 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-11 14528.9 14093.7 -0.0299537
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021-12 14093.7 15185.3 0.0774523
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-01 15185.3 18894 0.244235
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-02 18894 16809.2 -0.110344
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-03 16809.2 16809.2 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-04 16809.2 17051.6 0.014419
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-05 17051.6 20615.7 0.209023
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-06 20615.7 29268.5 0.419717
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-07 29268.5 28131.3 -0.0388539
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-08 28131.3 28552.1 0.0149593
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-09 28552.1 28739.4 0.00655751
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-10 28739.4 28739.4 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-11 28739.4 35687.1 0.24175
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022-12 35687.1 36536.1 0.0237893
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-01 36536.1 36536.1 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-02 36536.1 36852.2 0.00865146
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-03 36852.2 34442.7 -0.0653827
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-04 34442.7 36686.3 0.0651397
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-05 36686.3 36686.3 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-06 36686.3 34718 -0.0536508
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-07 34718 34718 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-08 34718 36867.6 0.0619163
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-09 36867.6 36661.6 -0.00558929
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-10 36661.6 36661.6 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-11 36661.6 36661.6 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023-12 36661.6 36661.6 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-01 36661.6 36173.7 -0.0133068
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-02 36173.7 36173.7 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-03 36173.7 36244.7 0.00196207
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-04 36244.7 34360.3 -0.0519903
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-05 34360.3 34360.3 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-06 34360.3 33133.8 -0.0356968
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-07 33133.8 33936.9 0.0242405
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-08 33936.9 36355.1 0.0712549
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-09 36355.1 37405.3 0.0288858
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-10 37405.3 35558.2 -0.0493784
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-11 35558.2 35558.2 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024-12 35558.2 37666.7 0.0592947
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-01 37666.7 33884.2 -0.100418
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-02 33884.2 42448.7 0.252756
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-03 42448.7 35654.7 -0.160051
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-04 35654.7 41422.6 0.16177
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-05 41422.6 41422.6 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-06 41422.6 37876.4 -0.0856109
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-07 37876.4 37876.4 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-08 37876.4 35527.1 -0.0620247
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-09 35527.1 35450.6 -0.00215343
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-10 35450.6 38444.7 0.0844578
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-11 38444.7 37588.6 -0.0222675
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025-12 37588.6 34866.6 -0.072416
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-01 34866.6 35200 0.00956199
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-02 35200 54992.4 0.562286
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-03 54992.4 54992.4 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-04 54992.4 54992.4 0
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026-05 54992.4 54992.4 0

Year distribution for top 3

name symbol bar family year start_equity end_equity return
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020 10000 18900.2 0.890018
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021 18900.2 17722 -0.0623361
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022 17722 33329.2 0.880666
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023 33329.2 31898.6 -0.0429248
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024 31898.6 34724.9 0.0886049
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025 34724.9 32898.8 -0.0525874
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026 32898.8 38526.5 0.17106
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020 10000 19543.2 0.954319
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021 19543.2 16468.4 -0.157331
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022 16468.4 34086.7 1.06982
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023 34086.7 33514.1 -0.0167992
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024 33514.1 35370.8 0.0554016
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025 35370.8 35083.9 -0.00811084
vol_expansion_short-btc-4H-fast30-slow120-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 BTC-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026 35083.9 41085.4 0.17106
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2020 10000 15600.7 0.560072
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2021 15600.7 15185.3 -0.0266313
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2022 15185.3 36536.1 1.40602
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2023 36536.1 36661.6 0.00343438
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2024 36661.6 37666.7 0.0274157
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2025 37666.7 34866.6 -0.0743382
vol_expansion_short-eth-4H-fast20-slow80-entry20-exit10-atr14-stop_atr3.0-take_atr6.0-max_hold120-vol_window120-vol_quantile0.8 ETH-USDT-SWAP 4H vol_expansion_short 2026 34866.6 54992.4 0.577224