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rotation-risk-report.md

rotation-risk-report.md 42 KB
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Rotation risk refinement

Run command: rtk .venv/bin/python scripts/refine_expansion_rotation_risk.py --years 8.0 --top 30 --base-limit 6

Output files:

  • reports/strategy-expansion/rotation-risk-total.csv
  • reports/strategy-expansion/rotation-risk-top.csv
  • reports/strategy-expansion/rotation-risk-horizons.csv
  • reports/strategy-expansion/rotation-risk-monthly.csv
  • reports/strategy-expansion/rotation-risk-report.md

Objective: reduce maximum drawdown to <=50%, preferably <=35%, while keeping annualized return positive and recent 3y/1y/6m/3m returns from deteriorating excessively. Cost model: 0.04% one-way taker fee, charged on leveraged notional at each portfolio weight change.

Top 3 low-drawdown candidates

strategy total_return annualized_return max_drawdown calmar h3y_return h1y_return h6m_return h3m_return next_validation
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 1.52024 0.156415 0.0771828 2.02655 0.549767 0.159105 -0.00276914 -0.00276914 yes
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 1.50916 0.155614 0.0789256 1.97165 0.455675 0.127072 -0.00276914 -0.00276914 yes
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 1.25842 0.136643 0.0794049 1.72084 0.4517 0.143187 0.00121816 0.00121816 yes

Ranked candidates

strategy family bar universe leverage exposure vol_target total_return annualized_return max_drawdown calmar trades win_rate profit_factor
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.52024 0.156415 0.0771828 2.02655 45 0.577778 7.38462
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.50916 0.155614 0.0789256 1.97165 45 0.6 6.85694
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.25842 0.136643 0.0794049 1.72084 46 0.521739 3.84953
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.20569 0.132429 0.0794049 1.66777 40 0.525 4.25946
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.65-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.65 0.2 1.46762 0.152585 0.0805259 1.89486 46 0.521739 3.93342
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr720-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.030-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.65714 0.166072 0.0869392 1.91021 48 0.604167 6.16629
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.65-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.65 0.2 1.72237 0.170527 0.0871112 1.95758 45 0.577778 6.98419
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr720-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.5905 0.161425 0.0874171 1.84661 48 0.583333 5.75939
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.80-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.8 0.2 1.65021 0.165593 0.0879904 1.88195 46 0.521739 4.10259
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.65-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.65 0.2 1.40548 0.147972 0.0895647 1.65213 40 0.525 4.26896
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr720-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.18574 0.130813 0.0914109 1.43105 42 0.52381 4.05858
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr720-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.030-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.2 1.18574 0.130813 0.0914109 1.43105 42 0.52381 4.05858
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.65-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.65 0.2 1.69457 0.168639 0.092658 1.82001 45 0.6 6.40108
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.3000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.3 2.065 0.192547 0.0940083 2.04819 45 0.6 7.88051
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.80-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.8 0.2 1.92486 0.183804 0.0972144 1.89071 45 0.6 7.3277
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.80-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.8 0.2 1.58265 0.160871 0.0973253 1.65292 40 0.525 4.40337
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.3000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.3 2.02074 0.189823 0.10038 1.89105 45 0.577778 8.12083
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.3000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.5 0.3 1.59204 0.161534 0.101152 1.59694 40 0.525 4.55135
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.80-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 0.75 0.8 0.2 1.88494 0.181249 0.10171 1.78202 45 0.6 6.49873
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev1.00-exp0.50-vt0.2000 trend_basket 1h BTC-USDT-SWAP,ETH-USDT-SWAP 1 0.5 0.2 2.3782 0.210929 0.101774 2.07251 45 0.577778 7.40994

Recent horizons for top 3

strategy horizon start end total_return annualized_return max_drawdown calmar
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 3y 2023-05-03 2026-05-03 0.4517 0.132165 0.0794049 1.66444
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 1y 2025-05-03 2026-05-03 0.143187 0.143187 0.0612528 2.33764
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 6m 2025-11-03 2026-05-03 0.00121816 0.00245804 0.0181391 0.135511
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 3m 2026-02-03 2026-05-03 0.00121816 0.00500528 0.0181391 0.275939
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 3y 2023-05-03 2026-05-03 0.549767 0.157082 0.074189 2.11733
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 1y 2025-05-03 2026-05-03 0.159105 0.159105 0.073139 2.17538
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 6m 2025-11-03 2026-05-03 -0.00276914 -0.00557632 0.0216901 -0.257091
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 3m 2026-02-03 2026-05-03 -0.00276914 -0.0113079 0.0216901 -0.52134
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 3y 2023-05-03 2026-05-03 0.455675 0.133196 0.0789256 1.68762
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 1y 2025-05-03 2026-05-03 0.127072 0.127072 0.0702553 1.80872
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 6m 2025-11-03 2026-05-03 -0.00276914 -0.00557632 0.0216901 -0.257091
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top2-mm0.000-bm0.050-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 3m 2026-02-03 2026-05-03 -0.00276914 -0.0113079 0.0216901 -0.52134

Monthly returns for top 3

strategy month start_equity end_equity return
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2019-12 10000 10000 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-01 10000 10000 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-02 10000 10000 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-03 10000 10000 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-04 10000 9819.58 -0.0180421
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-05 9819.58 9867.95 0.00492634
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-06 9867.95 9682.22 -0.0188217
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-07 9682.22 10060.7 0.0390942
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-08 10060.7 10723.3 0.0658544
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-09 10723.3 10342 -0.035554
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-10 10342 11084.2 0.0717667
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-11 11084.2 12185.7 0.0993675
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2020-12 12185.7 12664.4 0.0392869
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-01 12664.4 13038.9 0.0295688
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-02 13038.9 13167.8 0.00988989
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-03 13167.8 13387.6 0.0166888
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-04 13387.6 14188.9 0.059855
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-05 14188.9 14188.9 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-06 14188.9 14188.9 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-07 14188.9 14188.9 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-08 14188.9 14447.9 0.0182566
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-09 14447.9 14249.1 -0.0137629
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-10 14249.1 14873 0.0437877
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-11 14873 14741.8 -0.00882166
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2021-12 14741.8 14741.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-01 14741.8 14741.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-02 14741.8 14741.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-03 14741.8 14550.1 -0.0130068
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-04 14550.1 14344.8 -0.0141093
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-05 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-06 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-07 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-08 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-09 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-10 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-11 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2022-12 14344.8 14344.8 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-01 14344.8 15045.6 0.0488531
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-02 15045.6 15131.5 0.00571369
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-03 15131.5 15692.7 0.0370857
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-04 15692.7 15594.3 -0.00627191
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-05 15594.3 15506.6 -0.00562357
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-06 15506.6 15576.3 0.00449545
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-07 15576.3 15368.4 -0.0133458
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-08 15368.4 15368.4 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-09 15368.4 15368.4 0
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-10 15368.4 16556.4 0.0772996
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-11 16556.4 16996.5 0.0265823
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2023-12 16996.5 17137.9 0.00831832
trend_basket-1h-lb720-tr1440-bt2880-rb168-top1-mm0.000-bm0.000-vw336-vc0.0300-lev0.75-exp0.50-vt0.2000 2024-01 17137.9 17294.2 0.00912197
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